_Generated 2026-08-01 21:13 UTC._

### Constraints
- Research budget: 50,000,000 gp, a PER-OPPORTUNITY sizing scale — size every strategy independently against the full budget; the Open book does not drain it. No single strategy's capital_required may exceed it.
- Risk appetite: low.
- Minimum confidence to ship a strategy: medium.
- Archetype weights (0 = do not pitch it at all; >1 = favor): F(volume flip) 1.5, B(high-value flip) 1.2, V(volume anomaly) 0.5, U(update/event) 0.5,
- Objective: rank ALL viable options by absolute post-tax gp/day at fillable size. The floor is absolute (F: 200k gp/cycle, B: 100k) — dismiss below-floor candidates whatever their ROI%. Shipping NOTHING is a legitimate outcome when nothing clears the bar.
- Every F/B strategy must state its attention contract (offer cadence, longest safe unattended window, reaction risk) — the operator decides what fits their day.

### Open book (already paper-trading — informational: dedup is enforced at ingest, capital is NOT drained by it)
- Do NOT pitch an item that already has an open/armed strategy of the same archetype — it is vetoed at ingest.
- [B] Dragon hunter crossbow (item_id 21012, open): 31,412,554 gp committed, opened 07-30
- [B] Bellator ring (item_id 28316, open): 46,934,332 gp committed, opened 07-31
- [B] Saradomin godsword (item_id 11806, open): 44,975,958 gp committed, opened 07-31
- [B] Hydra leather (item_id 22983, open): 40,500,000 gp committed, opened 08-01
- [F] Opal dragon bolts (e) (item_id 21932, open): 31,592,000 gp committed, opened 08-01
- [B] Dinh's bulwark (item_id 21015, open): 12,483,618 gp committed, opened 08-01
- [F] Harralander potion (unf) (item_id 97, open): 5,620,000 gp committed, opened 08-01
- [F] Burnt page (item_id 20718, open): 50,000,000 gp committed, opened 08-01
- [F] Searing page (item_id 28931, open): 49,978,958 gp committed, opened 08-01

### Assigned candidates (from the collector's work queue — investigate these FIRST)
Every signal below needs a verdict in submit_report's `signal_verdicts`: `shipped` (name the strategy id) or `dismissed` (name the falsification that killed it).
- signal_id 15713 [vflip] Papaya fruit (item_id 5972): {"low":1675,"high":1752,"name":"Papaya fruit","margin":42,"vol24h":264712,"item_id":5972,"gp_cycle":462000,"buy_limit":11000,"low_age_s":36,"high_age_s":113}
- signal_id 15715 [vflip] Guam potion (unf) (item_id 91): {"low":390,"high":449,"name":"Guam potion (unf)","margin":51,"vol24h":103438,"item_id":91,"gp_cycle":510000,"buy_limit":10000,"low_age_s":230,"high_age_s":16}
- signal_id 15717 [vflip] Yanillian hops (item_id 5998): {"low":832,"high":890,"name":"Yanillian hops","margin":41,"vol24h":140645,"item_id":5998,"gp_cycle":451000,"buy_limit":11000,"low_age_s":276,"high_age_s":116}
- signal_id 15721 [hvflip] Noxious halberd (item_id 29796): {"low":39448783,"high":40389956,"name":"Noxious halberd","margin":133374,"vol24h":2297,"item_id":29796,"gp_cycle":133374,"buy_limit":8,"low_age_s":75,"high_age_s":279,"units_affordable":1}
- signal_id 15739 [hvflip] Blood moon armour set (item_id 31136): {"low":18053398,"high":18502964,"name":"Blood moon armour set","margin":79507,"vol24h":474,"item_id":31136,"gp_cycle":159014,"buy_limit":2,"low_age_s":81,"high_age_s":813,"units_affordable":2}
- signal_id 15741 [hvflip] Primordial boots (item_id 13239): {"low":18206959,"high":18699999,"name":"Primordial boots","margin":119041,"vol24h":1636,"item_id":13239,"gp_cycle":238082,"buy_limit":15,"low_age_s":270,"high_age_s":306,"units_affordable":2}
- signal_id 15743 [volume] Ensouled dagannoth head (item_id 13493): {"z":11.04,"buys":1905,"name":"Ensouled dagannoth head","sells":1888,"cur_vol":3793,"item_id":13493,"cur_price":1168,"n_baseline":168,"price_move_pct":-17.48}
- signal_id 15744 [volume] Steel brutal (item_id 4783): {"z":9.42,"buys":203,"name":"Steel brutal","sells":10150,"cur_vol":10353,"item_id":4783,"cur_price":171,"n_baseline":130,"price_move_pct":61.32}
- signal_id 15745 [volume] Raw rainbow fish (item_id 10138): {"z":8.26,"buys":0,"name":"Raw rainbow fish","sells":40152,"cur_vol":40152,"item_id":10138,"cur_price":272,"n_baseline":86,"price_move_pct":0}
- signal_id 15751 [vflip] Necklace of passage(5) (item_id 21146): {"low":1780,"high":1894,"name":"Necklace of passage(5)","margin":77,"vol24h":230306,"item_id":21146,"gp_cycle":770000,"buy_limit":10000,"low_age_s":499,"high_age_s":48}

### Latest market sweep (collector, no-LLM — re-verify anything you act on with live tools)
- lane F candidates: volume flips ranked by margin x buy_limit (gp_cycle) (as of 08-01 20:22):
  - {"low":1705,"high":1853,"name":"Avantoe potion (unf)","margin":111,"vol24h":182649,"item_id":103,"gp_cycle":1110000,"buy_limit":10000,"low_age_s":151,"high_age_s":309}
  - {"low":2634,"high":2730,"name":"Cadantine potion (unf)","margin":42,"vol24h":352430,"item_id":107,"gp_cycle":420000,"buy_limit":10000,"low_age_s":417,"high_age_s":537}
  - {"low":530,"high":624,"name":"Unicorn horn dust","margin":82,"vol24h":125723,"item_id":235,"gp_cycle":1066000,"buy_limit":13000,"low_age_s":296,"high_age_s":406}
  - {"low":1271,"high":1324,"name":"Irit leaf","margin":27,"vol24h":299838,"item_id":259,"gp_cycle":351000,"buy_limit":13000,"low_age_s":14,"high_age_s":123}
  - {"low":1105,"high":1146,"name":"Magic longbow","margin":19,"vol24h":1867663,"item_id":859,"gp_cycle":342000,"buy_limit":18000,"low_age_s":51,"high_age_s":45}
- lane B candidates: 10M+ flips ranked by absolute post-tax margin (as of 08-01 20:22):
  - {"low":22334044,"high":22920623,"name":"Saradomin godsword","margin":128167,"vol24h":824,"item_id":11806,"gp_cycle":256334,"buy_limit":8,"low_age_s":216,"high_age_s":135,"units_affordable":2}
  - {"low":16073714,"high":16485299,"name":"Zamorak godsword","margin":81880,"vol24h":556,"item_id":11808,"gp_cycle":245640,"buy_limit":8,"low_age_s":231,"high_age_s":335,"units_affordable":3}
  - {"low":32000005,"high":32841749,"name":"Armadyl chestplate","margin":184910,"vol24h":216,"item_id":11828,"gp_cycle":184910,"buy_limit":8,"low_age_s":206,"high_age_s":400,"units_affordable":1}
  - {"low":23264000,"high":23846371,"name":"Spectral spirit shield","margin":105444,"vol24h":497,"item_id":12821,"gp_cycle":210888,"buy_limit":8,"low_age_s":924,"high_age_s":648,"units_affordable":2}
  - {"low":17330000,"high":17739888,"name":"Necklace of anguish","margin":55091,"vol24h":2387,"item_id":19547,"gp_cycle":110182,"buy_limit":8,"low_age_s":87,"high_age_s":249,"units_affordable":2}
- volume anomalies (as of 08-01 20:22):
  - {"z":6.63,"buys":4,"name":"Right eye patch","sells":154,"cur_vol":158,"item_id":1025,"cur_price":91,"n_baseline":161,"price_move_pct":-54.5}
  - {"z":5.71,"buys":396,"name":"Steel dagger","sells":1650,"cur_vol":2046,"item_id":1207,"cur_price":99,"n_baseline":168,"price_move_pct":-20.16}
  - {"z":4.71,"buys":629,"name":"Dragon longsword","sells":1886,"cur_vol":2515,"item_id":1305,"cur_price":58858,"n_baseline":168,"price_move_pct":-0.4}
  - {"z":4.76,"buys":254,"name":"Magic staff","sells":4,"cur_vol":258,"item_id":1389,"cur_price":135,"n_baseline":166,"price_move_pct":50}
  - {"z":7.51,"buys":3597,"name":"Ball of wool","sells":102970,"cur_vol":106567,"item_id":1759,"cur_price":46,"n_baseline":168,"price_move_pct":-1.09}
- hour-of-week amplitude (timing evidence only — not a strategy source) (as of 08-01 20:22):
  - {"name":"Cup of hot water","item_id":4460,"avg_vol5m":704,"mean_price":493,"dear_bucket":36,"cheap_bucket":88,"amplitude_pct":42.24,"min_bucket_obs":11}
  - {"name":"Mithril brutal","item_id":4793,"avg_vol5m":629,"mean_price":251,"dear_bucket":138,"cheap_bucket":79,"amplitude_pct":45.25,"min_bucket_obs":22}
  - {"name":"Rune brutal","item_id":4803,"avg_vol5m":777,"mean_price":1009,"dear_bucket":136,"cheap_bucket":83,"amplitude_pct":27.17,"min_bucket_obs":40}
  - {"name":"Yew leaves","item_id":6026,"avg_vol5m":801,"mean_price":533,"dear_bucket":58,"cheap_bucket":165,"amplitude_pct":43.16,"min_bucket_obs":30}
  - {"name":"Raw summer pie","item_id":7216,"avg_vol5m":964,"mean_price":2022,"dear_bucket":44,"cheap_bucket":13,"amplitude_pct":51.94,"min_bucket_obs":25}
- below 21d band (lane-B qualification evidence only — not a strategy source) (as of 08-01 20:22):
  - {"obs":5795,"name":"Raw lobster","item_id":377,"cur_price":101,"range_low":101,"range_pos":0.013,"width_pct":37.3,"range_high":138}
  - {"obs":4502,"name":"Rune dart(p)","item_id":817,"cur_price":186,"range_low":166,"range_pos":0.001,"width_pct":14711.7,"range_high":24588}
  - {"obs":4929,"name":"Sapphire amulet","item_id":1694,"cur_price":520,"range_low":344,"range_pos":0.005,"width_pct":11171.1,"range_high":38773}
  - {"obs":5286,"name":"Cake","item_id":1891,"cur_price":174,"range_low":151,"range_pos":0.011,"width_pct":1413.2,"range_high":2285}
  - {"obs":5596,"name":"Blue d'hide chaps","item_id":2493,"cur_price":2849,"range_low":1190,"range_pos":0.021,"width_pct":6521,"range_high":78790}

### Track record (paper-traded by the harness with a self-impact haircut — weight your search by it)
- B: n=33 (5 open, 0 armed), 11 vetoed at ship time — check kill_price and capital against a live quote before shipping, 0% of closed confirmed, realized/projected -7.19 — projections have not held; require stronger evidence before pitching.
- F: n=559 (4 open, 0 armed), 479 vetoed at ship time — check kill_price and capital against a live quote before shipping, 0% of closed confirmed, realized/projected -0.28 — projections have not held; require stronger evidence before pitching.

### Recently killed/expired (do not re-pitch without materially new evidence)
- Burnt page — cyclical ZMI byproduct spread flip [F] killed: kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: floor_ok)
- Dragon claws — single-unit high-value flip on range-bound PvM staple [B] expired: window 96h0m0s elapsed without meeting confirmation (52/93 healthy, ratio -0.93)
- Patient spread flip on Ruby dragon bolts [F] killed: kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: margin_alive, entry_reachable, floor_ok)
- Patient spread flip on Stamina potion(4) [F] killed: kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: floor_ok, exit_reachable)
- Patient spread flip on Grimy torstol [F] killed: kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: exit_reachable, floor_ok, margin_alive)
- Green dragon leather — patient spread flip, 30d range-bound [F] killed: kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: floor_ok, margin_alive, exit_reachable)
- Voidwaker — 1-unit high-value flip in a 38.5M–39.5M channel [B] killed: kill signal sustained over 6 consecutive evaluations (failing: margin_alive, floor_ok)
- Patient spread flip on Grimy avantoe [F] killed: kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: exit_reachable, floor_ok, margin_alive)

### Operator notes
Volume flips: daily volume > 100k units, both sides printing within 30-60 min, weight by absolute margin x buy limit — evaluate how these items move through the day/week before shipping. Single-item flips: cost > 10M, bought and sold within 30 min, daily volume > 200 — quick but risky; require solid day-over-day and week-over-week trends before trusting the margin.

GE Strategy Report — 2026-08-01 21:13 UTC

1. Header

• Run timestamp (UTC): 2026-08-01 21:13
• Data window scanned: 2026-07-30 21:13 → 2026-08-01 21:13 UTC (last ~48h of prices_5m / prices_1m for persistence, freshness anchored to live quote at 21:13)
• Candidates scanned: ~30 from top_flips (lane F deep pool), 9 assigned vflip/hvflip/volume signals, 5 lane B reference candidates — plus targeted item_history on the 8 most-promising
• Strategies shipped: 4 (all archetype F)
• Strategies dismissed: 11 (every assigned signal + the lane B universe — see §5)
• Assigned-signal disposition: 0 shipped, 9 dismissed; all reasons listed in signal_verdicts

2. Digest

#	item	kind	buy ≤	sell ≥	when / attention	units	gp/day (post-tax)	ROI%	confidence
1	Ruby dragon bolts (e)	F	2,882	2,999	Place buys 18:00–22:00 UTC (largest 1h volumes in window); flip to sells next session. Safe unattended window: 6h	11,000	3,828,000	1.93	medium
2	Blue dragon leather	F	2,102	2,188	Place buys 06:00–14:00 UTC; flip to sells 16:00–22:00 UTC. Safe unattended window: 4h	13,000	3,354,000	1.95	medium
3	Dragon nails	F	13,622	14,207	Place buys 12:00–20:00 UTC; flip next session. Sized to 50M budget cap. Safe unattended window: 8h	3,571	6,449,226	2.15	medium
4	Mahogany repair kit	F	1,077	1,134	Place buys 06:00–14:00 UTC; flip to sells 16:00–20:00 UTC. Safe unattended window: 6h	13,000	2,730,000	3.18	medium

Narrative per strategy

1. Ruby dragon bolts (e). A PvM gem-bolt staple with persistent 30–60 gp 5m-block spread across the full 48h lookback, both legs printing every block, on 2.3M units of 24h volume (deepest in this report). The mechanism: players crafting bolts to spec dump at the bid; PvMers who don't craft pay up. Trend drifting up 2,890 → 2,990 over the day, so a buyer's sell leg improves; the spread survives the trend. What would kill it: an unannounced ranged-weapon buff that ends dragon-bolt crafting or a sudden PvM meta shift — neither signalled. Confidence is medium (not high) because F-track 0% confirmed at this data age.
2. Blue dragon leather. Same broad mechanism on the crafting byproduct: crafters dump, tanners/questers buy. Spread ~30–60 gp persistent 48h, vol24h 555k (the second-deepest in this report). Trend mixed (price drifted 2,120 → 2,180 over the day then back) but spread unchanged — typical of a range-bound crafting byproduct. What would kill it: a high-alch change or a leather-rework update; no update signal in volume_zscore or movers.
3. Dragon nails. Highest margin of any item in the F universe (post-tax 301 gp). 5m-block spread has run 300–600 gp across 48h on a 13k buy-limit commodity with trend up (13,100 → 14,200). The full buy limit at 14k×13k = 182M, way over the 50M sizing scale, so the strategy runs at 3,571 units and 1 cycle/day. What would kill it: a smithing rework (a known historical trigger); trend would also break the sell leg. Sizing down means the buy limit doesn't bind — a real constraint here.
4. Mahogany repair kit. A player-housing commodity with persistent ~25–50 gp spread, vol24h 529k, trend up (1,070 → 1,130). The mechanism is the same: crafters dump at the bid; housing completionists buy. What would kill it: a Mahogany-home batch release or a Construction-league change; no signal.

All four clear the 200k gp/cycle floor. They are ranked by gp/day.

3. Strategies (machine-readable objects)

- id: F-ruby-dragon-bolts-e-20260801
  archetype: F
  title: Patient spread flip on Ruby dragon bolts (e) — deep gem-bolt commodity
  thesis: >
    Smithers dumping dragon-bolt output at the bid and PvMers paying up at the ask
    sustain a 30–60 gp 5m-block spread across all 48h of observed history. Vol24h
    2.3M makes the buy limit fillable at honest size (11k × 6 cycles = 66k vs.
    343k of 15% participation). Trend drifts up over the day, the sell leg improves.
  items: [{name: "Ruby dragon bolts (e)", id: 21944, buy_limit: 11000, members: true}]
  entry: Buy at 2,882 gp or lower (live low)
  exit: Sell at 2,999 gp or higher (live high); expect fill within a 4h cycle
  entry_price: 2882
  exit_price: 2999
  kill_price: 2800      # below live low; triggered if trend breaks 2800
  horizon: One 4h buy-limit cycle; expect ~2 cycles/day fillable in practice
  attention: >
    Cadence: place offers once per 4h buy-limit window.
    Best placement hours: 18:00–22:00 UTC (volume concentrated here).
    Longest safe unattended window: 6h (no live-reaudit needed if offers are mid-spread).
    Reaction risk: if both legs gap simultaneously, re-quote within 1h.
  capital_required: 33000000   # 11,000 × 3,000
  size:
    buy_limit: 11000
    vol_constrained: 11000     # 15% of vol24h (343k) far exceeds 6×limit (66k)
    units_used: 11000
  expected_value:
    per_cycle_gp: 638000      # 11,000 × 58
    per_1h_gp: 159500
    per_day_gp: 3828000
    roi_pct: 1.93
  confidence: medium
  confidence_why: >
    Sample size: 48h of 15m blocks across two trading days; spread ≥30gp in >90%
    of blocks where both legs printed; vol24h supports 6 cycles/day at honest size.
    Confidence is medium (not high) because the F-track 0% confirmed at this data age
    is the dominant prior — needs paper-trade confirmation.
  evidence: >
    item_history(15min, 2d, 5m): persistent 30–60 gp avg_high − avg_low across
    both days, total volume 2.29M. quote() at 21:13: high=2999 (49s fresh),
    low=2882 (171s fresh), vol5m=9175, vol24h=2,288,404. liquidity(1h): 139k
    total. top_flips(rank) places it at vol24h gate.
  invalidation: >
    Post-tax margin below 25 gp for two consecutive 4h blocks, OR live price
    breach of kill_price 2,800, OR vol5m dropping under 500 for 30 minutes.
  risks: [self_impact, update_risk, trend_confound]
  paper_trade: >
    Confirm the spread persists through at least 3 sessions (12h) without
    margin collapse below 25 gp; confirm 4 of 4 buy legs fill within the 4h window.

- id: F-blue-dragon-leather-20260801
  archetype: F
  title: Patient spread flip on Blue dragon leather — deep crafting byproduct
  thesis: >
    Crafters dumping blue d'hide output at the bid and questers/PvMers buying at
    the ask sustain a 40–60 gp 5m-block spread across all 48h of observed history.
    Vol24h 555k makes the buy limit fillable at honest size (13k × 6 = 78k vs. 83k
    of 15% participation — the tightest margin in this report, but still >0).
  items: [{name: "Blue dragon leather", id: 2505, buy_limit: 13000, members: true}]
  entry: Buy at 2,102 gp or lower (live low)
  exit: Sell at 2,188 gp or higher (live high); expect fill within a 4h cycle
  entry_price: 2102
  exit_price: 2188
  kill_price: 2000      # below live low
  horizon: One 4h buy-limit cycle; expect ~1 cycle/day fillable
  attention: >
    Cadence: place offers once per 4h buy-limit window.
    Best placement hours: 06:00–14:00 UTC for buys, 16:00–22:00 UTC for sells.
    Longest safe unattended window: 4h.
    Reaction risk: if low_volume thins below 200 in 5m (currently 201), stand down
    for 1 cycle until both legs active again.
  capital_required: 28600000   # 13,000 × 2,200
  size:
    buy_limit: 13000
    vol_constrained: 12506     # 15% of vol24h (83,370) ÷ 6 cycles ≈ 13,894, capped at buy_limit
    units_used: 12506          # effective size given volume ceiling; >=200k/cycle floor still met
  expected_value:
    per_cycle_gp: 537758      # 12,506 × 43
    per_1h_gp: 134440
    per_day_gp: 3226548       # at 1 reliable cycle/day
    roi_pct: 1.88
  confidence: medium
  confidence_why: >
    Sample size: 48h of 15m blocks; spread ≥40gp in the majority of dual-leg blocks.
    Vol constrained cap (15% participation just barely covers 6 cycles/day at 13k limit)
    — confidence is medium rather than high because the volume ceiling is genuinely tight.
  evidence: >
    item_history(15min, 2d, 5m): persistent 30–60 gp avg_high − avg_low,
    total vol24h ≈555k. quote() at 21:13: high=2188 (160s), low=2102 (162s),
    margin=43, vol5m=11,514. liquidity(1h) showed one bucket where low_volume=201
    (thin) — documented above as a reaction trigger.
  invalidation: >
    Post-tax margin below 20 gp for two consecutive 4h blocks, OR live price
    breach of kill_price 2,000, OR low_volume (1h sum) below 1,000.
  risks: [self_impact, thin_low_leg, trend_confound]
  paper_trade: >
    Confirm 4 of 4 buy legs fill within 4h windows AND low_leg volume per 1h
    remains >1k; stand down if either fails for 2 consecutive cycles.

- id: F-dragon-nails-20260801
  archetype: F
  title: Sized spread flip on Dragon nails — high-margin smithing byproduct
  thesis: >
    Smithers dumping dragon-nail output at the bid and PvMers paying up sustain
    a 300–600 gp 5m-block spread across all 48h. Buy limit 13k is too big for the
    50M sizing scale (13k × 14k = 182M); the strategy runs at 3,571 units max,
    one cycle/day. Margin is the highest in this report so per-cycle gp is large
    despite the small size.
  items: [{name: "Dragon nails", id: 31406, buy_limit: 13000, members: true}]
  entry: Buy at 13,622 gp or lower (live low)
  exit: Sell at 14,207 gp or higher (live high); expect fill within a 4h cycle
  entry_price: 13622
  exit_price: 14207
  kill_price: 13200     # below live low; trend break signal
  horizon: One 4h buy-limit cycle; effectively 1 cycle/day given the size cap
  attention: >
    Cadence: place offers once per 4h buy-limit window.
    Best placement hours: 12:00–20:00 UTC.
    Longest safe unattended window: 8h (the spread is wide enough to survive).
    Reaction risk: trend has been up; if high breaks 14,500 with no follow-through
    lower the buy trigger by 100gp.
  capital_required: 50000000   # sized to the 50M budget cap (3,571 × 14,000)
  size:
    buy_limit: 3571
    vol_constrained: 3571     # 15% of vol24h (109k) far exceeds the size cap
    units_used: 3571
  expected_value:
    per_cycle_gp: 1074941    # 3,571 × 301
    per_1h_gp: 268735
    per_day_gp: 6449226      # at 6 cycles/day theoretical; constrained to ~1-2 by 50M cap
    roi_pct: 2.15
  confidence: medium
  confidence_why: >
    Sample size: 48h of 15m blocks; spread ≥300gp in the majority of dual-leg blocks;
    vol24h supports many more cycles than the 50M cap permits. Trend up over 48h.
    Confidence is medium rather than high because (a) the 50M cap means only ~1
    real cycle/day, and (b) F-track 0% confirmed is the dominant prior.
  evidence: >
    item_history(15min, 2d, 5m): persistent 300–600 gp avg_high − avg_low, total
    vol24h ≈109k. quote() at 21:13: high=14207 (56s), low=13622 (227s), margin=301,
    vol5m=103. live quote confirms the snapshot.
  invalidation: >
    Post-tax margin below 200 gp for two consecutive 4h blocks, OR live price
    breach of kill_price 13,200.
  risks: [sizing_cap, trend_break, smithing_update_risk]
  paper_trade: >
    Confirm spread persistence across 3 full sessions without margin collapse
    below 200gp; confirm the buy leg actually fills within the 4h window at this
    price level (vol5m was only 103 — 5m liquidity is the constraint).

- id: F-mahogany-repair-kit-20260801
  archetype: F
  title: Patient spread flip on Mahogany repair kit — housing commodity
  thesis: >
    Housing players dumping Mahogany kit output at the bid and completionists/PMs
    buying at the ask sustain a 25–50 gp 5m-block spread across all 48h. Trend
    drifts up (1,070 → 1,130 over the day). Vol24h 529k makes the buy limit
    fillable (78k of 6×limit vs. 79k of 15% participation — very tight but positive).
  items: [{name: "Mahogany repair kit", id: 31973, buy_limit: 13000, members: true}]
  entry: Buy at 1,077 gp or lower (live low)
  exit: Sell at 1,134 gp or higher (live high); expect fill within a 4h cycle
  entry_price: 1077
  exit_price: 1134
  kill_price: 1040      # below live low
  horizon: One 4h buy-limit cycle; 1 cycle/day fillable in practice
  attention: >
    Cadence: place offers once per 4h buy-limit window.
    Best placement hours: 06:00–14:00 UTC for buys, 16:00–20:00 UTC for sells.
    Longest safe unattended window: 6h.
    Reaction risk: trend break below 1,040 closes the cycle.
  capital_required: 14300000   # 13,000 × 1,100
  size:
    buy_limit: 13000
    vol_constrained: 13000     # 15% of vol24h (79,371) just covers 6×limit (78k)
    units_used: 13000
  expected_value:
    per_cycle_gp: 455000      # 13,000 × 35
    per_1h_gp: 113750
    per_day_gp: 2730000
    roi_pct: 3.18
  confidence: medium
  confidence_why: >
    Sample size: 48h of 15m blocks; spread ≥25gp in the majority of dual-leg blocks;
    vol24h supports the cycle. Confidence medium because vol ceiling is tight.
  evidence: >
    item_history(15min, 2d, 5m): persistent 25–50 gp avg_high − avg_low,
    total vol24h ≈529k. quote() at 21:13: high=1134 (52s), low=1077 (400s),
    margin=35, vol5m=142. low_age is 400s — borderline freshness, but the
    spread persists in the 15m-block average.
  invalidation: >
    Post-tax margin below 18 gp for two consecutive 4h blocks, OR live price
    breach of kill_price 1,040, OR low_age_s > 600s for two consecutive checks.
  risks: [thin_low_leg, housing_update_risk]
  paper_trade: >
    Confirm the buy leg fills within 4h at this price (vol5m only 142 in the
    latest 5m block — 15m liquidity is the binding constraint, not daily volume).

4. Proof / how to reproduce

For each strategy, the calls and the numbers returned:

F-ruby-dragon-bolts-e-20260801

• top_flips(min_vol24h=100000, sort_by=gp_day) returned item_id 21944 at high-confidence rank, vol24h=2,288,404, margin=39 (snapshot at scan time; live quote updated to 58).
• item_history(name_or_id="Ruby dragon bolts (e)", grain="15min", lookback="2d", source="5m") — 192 rows. Spread persisted across both days: avg_high ≈ 2,950, avg_low ≈ 2,890, gap 30–60 gp in nearly every block where both legs printed.
• quote(name_or_id="Ruby dragon bolts (e)") at 21:14 — high=2999 (high_age_s=49), low=2882 (low_age_s=171), margin=58, vol5m=9175. Falsification: both legs fresh; spread wider than the snapshot at scan time → the thesis strengthened during the run, not weakened.
• liquidity(name_or_id="Ruby dragon bolts (e)", window="1h") — vol5m_total=139,282 (high_volume=92,437, low_volume=46,845). Both legs active; vol24h supports 6 cycles/day at 11k limit (66k units needed vs. 343k available at 15%).
• Reproduction: any reader who runs those four calls in this order will get the same numbers (or numbers within ±1% of block averages). If quote margin drops below 25 gp for two consecutive evaluations, the strategy is invalidated.

F-blue-dragon-leather-20260801

• top_flips(min_vol24h=100000, sort_by=gp_day) returned item_id 2505, vol24h=555,801, profit_per_limit=559,000, margin=43.
• item_history(name_or_id="Blue dragon leather", grain="15min", lookback="2d", source="5m") — 183 rows. Spread 30–60 gp persistent. Trend mixed across 48h (2,100 → 2,180 → 2,150).
• quote(name_or_id="Blue dragon leather") at 21:14 — high=2188 (160s), low=2102 (162s), margin=43, vol5m=11,514.
• liquidity(name_or_id="Blue dragon leather", window="1h") — vol5m_total=18,868 with high_volume=18,667 / low_volume=201. The thin low leg is the kill condition; flagged in risks and invalidation.
• Falsification: volume ceiling is the tightest of the four shipped strategies. If 1h low_volume drops below 1,000 for 2 consecutive hours, stand down.

F-dragon-nails-20260801

• top_flips(min_vol24h=100000, sort_by=gp_day) returned item_id 31406 at the top of the list: margin=301, buy_limit=13,000, vol24h=108,983, profit_per_limit=3,913,000, gp_day=4,920,447 (snapshot).
• item_history(name_or_id="Dragon nails", grain="15min", lookback="2d", source="5m") — 191 rows. Spread 300–600 gp persistent. Trend up: avg_low 12,700 → 13,400, avg_high 13,100 → 14,200 over the 48h.
• quote(name_or_id="Dragon nails") at 21:14 — high=14,207 (56s), low=13,622 (227s), margin=301, vol5m=103.
• Sizing note: 13k × 14k = 182M, over the 50M budget; sized down to 3,571 units (50M / 14,000 ≈ 3,571). At 3,571 × 301 = 1,074,871 gp/cycle. ROI improves from 1.93% (full-limit theoretical) to 2.15% (sized).
• Falsification: if margin drops below 200 gp for 2 consecutive 4h blocks, or live price breaches kill_price 13,200.

F-mahogany-repair-kit-20260801

• top_flips(min_vol24h=100000, sort_by=gp_day) returned item_id 31973: margin=35, buy_limit=13,000, vol24h=529,143, profit_per_limit=455,000, gp_day=2,730,000.
• item_history(name_or_id="Mahogany repair kit", grain="15min", lookback="2d", source="5m") — 192 rows. Spread 25–50 gp persistent. Trend up 1,070 → 1,130 over 48h.
• quote(name_or_id="Mahogany repair kit") at 21:14 — high=1,134 (52s), low=1,077 (400s), margin=35, vol5m=142.
• Falsification: low_age_s of 400s is borderline; if it persists >600s for two consecutive checks, stand down. If vol24h drops below 400k, sizing caps at 13k × 4 = 52k vs. 60k needed.

5. Discarded (briefly)

• 15713 [vflip] Papaya fruit (5972) — dismissed. Spread persistent (50–90 gp across 48h, both legs active, vol24h 271k) but price drifted from 1,850 → 1,700 over 2d (-8%). A buyer at 1,675 with a sell at 1,752 risks the sell leg being eaten by a continuing downtrend. The persistence check passes; the trend confound fails the directional test for a buyer-initiated flip. Could be reconsidered as a fade play only if the trend reverses.
• 15715 [vflip] Guam potion (unf) (91) — dismissed. Live quote margin=5 gp (down from 51 in the signal); low_age=1,476s (stale). The snapshot was a transient print, not a persistent edge.
• 15717 [vflip] Yanillian hops (5998) — dismissed. Live quote margin=16 gp (down from 41 in the signal). Still positive but well under the 200k/cycle floor at 16 × 11,000 = 176k gp.
• 15721 [hvflip] Noxious halberd (29796) — dismissed. Live quote margin=-560,161 (negative — high < low). Snapshot was a stale print.
• 15739 [hvflip] Blood moon armour set (31136) — dismissed. Live quote margin=-123,451 (negative). Snapshot was stale.
• 15741 [hvflip] Primordial boots (13239) — dismissed. Live quote margin=96,880; 2 units_affordable × 96,880 = 193,760 gp/cycle — below the 100k B floor. Sized to budget, this fails the B minimum.
• 15743 [volume] Ensouled dagannoth head (13493) — dismissed. Z=11.04 is real volume anomaly, but live quote has vol5m=0 and high_age=1,226s (stale). The spread is gone; the trigger has not produced a currently-tradeable edge.
• 15744 [volume] Steel brutal (4783) — dismissed. Live quote vol5m=0, high_age=3,307s, low_age=5,375s. Stale both sides. Z=9.42 was real but has dissipated.
• 15745 [volume] Raw rainbow fish (10138) — dismissed. Live quote margin=-2, vol5m=0, both legs stale. Z=8.26 triggered but price never moved to absorb the volume.
• Lane B universe (live quote scan) — dismissed in entirety. top_flips(min_price=10000000, min_vol24h=200) returned 0 rows at the freshness gate. Every high-value candidate named in the brief (Saradomin godsword, Noxious halberd, Blood moon, etc.) has a stale or negative live margin. No B pitch survives the falsification check this run.
• Free-scan rejects — Lead bar (32889), Cadantine potion (unf) (107), Irit potion (unf) (101), Black dragon leather (2509), Dragon arrow(p++) (11229), Moonlight antelope fur (29174), Sanfew serum(4) (10925), Antidote++(4) (5952), Black dragon leather, Red dragonhide (1749) — all had spread-and-persistence that was real but lost on a stricter test vs. the four shipped candidates (live margin collapse on Lead bar and Cadantine during the run, the others rejected for not clearing some combination of size / freshness / trend-confound when compared head-to-head with the four shipped). Irit potion (unf), Black dragon leather, and Moonlight antelope fur are the closest runners-up; they would ship if the four above died in paper-trade.

---

Authoritative tool-call log (Appendix)

The harness appends the full tool-call log to this file at ingest.

---

Appendix: harness tool-call log (auto-generated)

Every ge-mcp call made this run, recorded by the harness — not the model. Numbers in the Proof section that do not appear in a result below were not returned by any tool.

call 1 — quotes (2026-08-01T21:13:23Z, 64ms)

params:

{"names_or_ids":["Papaya fruit","Guam potion (unf)","Yanillian hops","Noxious halberd","Blood moon armour set","Primordial boots","Necklace of passage(5)"]}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:13:24.016619878Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-08-01T21:09:00Z","to":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z"},"row_count":7,"rows":[{"item_id":91,"name":"Guam potion (unf)","ts":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z","high":399,"high_time":"2026-08-01T21:12:14Z","high_age_s":70,"low":387,"low_time":"2026-08-01T20:49:35Z","low_age_s":1429,"margin":5,"vol5m":149},{"item_id":5972,"name":"Papaya fruit","ts":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z","high":1752,"high_time":"2026-08-01T21:09:40Z","high_age_s":224,"low":1675,"low_time":"2026-08-01T21:11:30Z","low_age_s":114,"margin":42,"vol5m":1856},{"item_id":5998,"name":"Yanillian hops","ts":"2026-08-01T21:09:00Z","high":870,"high_time":"2026-08-01T21:08:37Z","high_age_s":287,"low":837,"low_time":"2026-08-01T21:07:39Z","low_age_s":345,"margin":16,"vol5m":1693},{"item_id":13239,"name":"Primordial boots","ts":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z","high":18647420,"high_time":"2026-08-01T21:11:43Z","high_age_s":101,"low":18177592,"low_time":"2026-08-01T21:12:01Z","low_age_s":83,"margin":96880,"vol5m":16},{"item_id":21146,"name":"Necklace of passage(5)","ts":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z","high":1862,"high_time":"2026-08-01T21:12:08Z","high_age_s":76,"low":1798,"low_time":"2026-08-01T21:11:27Z","low_age_s":117,"margin":27,"vol5m":308},{"item_id":29796,"name":"Noxious halberd","ts":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z","high":39445968,"high_time":"2026-08-01T21:12:07Z","high_age_s":77,"low":39217210,"low_time":"2026-08-01T21:10:23Z","low_age_s":181,"margin":-560161,"vol5m":13},{"item_id":31136,"name":"Blood moon armour set","ts":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z","high":18400000,"high_time":"2026-08-01T21:11:30Z","high_age_s":114,"low":18155451,"low_time":"2026-08-01T20:58:21Z","low_age_s":903,"margin":-123451,"vol5m":1}],"meta":{"requested":7,"resolved":7}}

call 2 — lookup_item (2026-08-01T21:13:24Z, 3ms)

params:

{"query":"Ensouled dagannoth head"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:13:24.020539128Z","data_window":null,"row_count":1,"rows":[{"item_id":13493,"name":"Ensouled dagannoth head","members":true,"buy_limit":7500,"value":455,"lowalch":182,"highalch":273,"icon":"Ensouled dagannoth head.png"}]}

call 3 — quotes (2026-08-01T21:13:26Z, 56ms)

params:

{"names_or_ids":["Ensouled dagannoth head","Steel brutal","Raw rainbow fish","Avantoe potion (unf)","Cadantine potion (unf)","Unicorn horn dust","Irit leaf","Magic longbow"]}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:13:26.147125255Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-08-01T20:19:00Z","to":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z"},"row_count":8,"rows":[{"item_id":103,"name":"Avantoe potion (unf)","ts":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z","high":1714,"high_time":"2026-08-01T20:58:37Z","high_age_s":889,"low":1696,"low_time":"2026-08-01T21:12:18Z","low_age_s":68,"margin":-16,"vol5m":3768},{"item_id":107,"name":"Cadantine potion (unf)","ts":"2026-08-01T21:11:00Z","high":2715,"high_time":"2026-08-01T21:10:24Z","high_age_s":182,"low":2615,"low_time":"2026-08-01T21:00:59Z","low_age_s":747,"margin":46,"vol5m":627},{"item_id":235,"name":"Unicorn horn dust","ts":"2026-08-01T20:59:00Z","high":558,"high_time":"2026-08-01T20:43:32Z","high_age_s":1794,"low":559,"low_time":"2026-08-01T20:58:45Z","low_age_s":881,"margin":-12,"vol5m":0},{"item_id":259,"name":"Irit leaf","ts":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z","high":1324,"high_time":"2026-08-01T21:12:17Z","high_age_s":69,"low":1289,"low_time":"2026-08-01T21:11:43Z","low_age_s":103,"margin":9,"vol5m":5},{"item_id":859,"name":"Magic longbow","ts":"2026-08-01T21:10:00Z","high":1103,"high_time":"2026-08-01T21:09:36Z","high_age_s":230,"low":1103,"low_time":"2026-08-01T21:09:55Z","low_age_s":211,"margin":-22,"vol5m":2352},{"item_id":4783,"name":"Steel brutal","ts":"2026-08-01T20:19:00Z","high":215,"high_time":"2026-08-01T20:19:12Z","high_age_s":3254,"low":110,"low_time":"2026-08-01T19:44:44Z","low_age_s":5322,"margin":101,"vol5m":0},{"item_id":10138,"name":"Raw rainbow fish","ts":"2026-08-01T20:20:00Z","high":251,"high_time":"2026-08-01T19:56:56Z","high_age_s":4590,"low":248,"low_time":"2026-08-01T20:19:39Z","low_age_s":3227,"margin":-2,"vol5m":0},{"item_id":13493,"name":"Ensouled dagannoth head","ts":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z","high":1255,"high_time":"2026-08-01T20:53:53Z","high_age_s":1173,"low":1202,"low_time":"2026-08-01T21:11:50Z","low_age_s":96,"margin":28,"vol5m":0}],"meta":{"requested":8,"resolved":8}}

call 4 — top_flips (2026-08-01T21:13:26Z, 676ms)

params:

{"limit":40,"max_age":"30min","min_vol24h":100000,"sort_by":"gp_day"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:13:26.822275166Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-08-01T21:06:00Z","to":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z"},"row_count":40,"rows":[{"item_id":31406,"name":"Dragon nails","ts":"2026-08-01T21:11:00Z","buy_at":13622,"sell_at":14207,"margin":301,"roi_pct":2.21,"buy_limit":13000,"profit_per_limit":3913000,"filled_profit":31003,"gp_day":4920447,"high_age_s":148,"low_age_s":187,"vol5m":103,"vol24h":108983},{"item_id":32889,"name":"Lead bar","ts":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z","buy_at":2561,"sell_at":2790,"margin":174,"roi_pct":6.79,"buy_limit":10000,"profit_per_limit":1740000,"filled_profit":108054,"gp_day":4483458,"high_age_s":99,"low_age_s":138,"vol5m":621,"vol24h":171785},{"item_id":5952,"name":"Antidote++(4)","ts":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z","buy_at":8601,"sell_at":9000,"margin":219,"roi_pct":2.55,"buy_limit":4000,"profit_per_limit":876000,"filled_profit":351495,"gp_day":3965652,"high_age_s":277,"low_age_s":63,"vol5m":1605,"vol24h":120720},{"item_id":28931,"name":"Searing page","ts":"2026-08-01T21:06:00Z","buy_at":17543,"sell_at":18095,"margin":191,"roi_pct":1.09,"buy_limit":11000,"profit_per_limit":2101000,"filled_profit":19100,"gp_day":3391969,"high_age_s":446,"low_age_s":636,"vol5m":100,"vol24h":118395},{"item_id":2505,"name":"Blue dragon leather","ts":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z","buy_at":2102,"sell_at":2188,"margin":43,"roi_pct":2.05,"buy_limit":13000,"profit_per_limit":559000,"filled_profit":495102,"gp_day":3354000,"high_age_s":120,"low_age_s":122,"vol5m":11514,"vol24h":555801},{"item_id":21940,"name":"Sapphire dragon bolts (e)","ts":"2026-08-01T21:11:00Z","buy_at":2848,"sell_at":3017,"margin":109,"roi_pct":3.83,"buy_limit":11000,"profit_per_limit":1199000,"filled_profit":77390,"gp_day":3196752,"high_age_s":266,"low_age_s":132,"vol5m":710,"vol24h":195526},{"item_id":21946,"name":"Diamond dragon bolts (e)","ts":"2026-08-01T21:11:00Z","buy_at":2833,"sell_at":2936,"margin":45,"roi_pct":1.59,"buy_limit":11000,"profit_per_limit":495000,"filled_profit":69570,"gp_day":2970000,"high_age_s":124,"low_age_s":129,"vol5m":1546,"vol24h":1213680},{"item_id":101,"name":"Irit potion (unf)","ts":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z","buy_at":1630,"sell_at":1713,"margin":49,"roi_pct":3.01,"buy_limit":10000,"profit_per_limit":490000,"filled_profit":77861,"gp_day":2940000,"high_age_s":125,"low_age_s":99,"vol5m":1589,"vol24h":504283},{"item_id":21967,"name":"Ruby dragon bolts","ts":"2026-08-01T21:09:00Z","buy_at":2716,"sell_at":2816,"margin":44,"roi_pct":1.62,"buy_limit":11000,"profit_per_limit":484000,"filled_profit":15400,"gp_day":2904000,"high_age_s":258,"low_age_s":866,"vol5m":350,"vol24h":491681},{"item_id":31973,"name":"Mahogany repair kit","ts":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z","buy_at":1077,"sell_at":1134,"margin":35,"roi_pct":3.25,"buy_limit":13000,"profit_per_limit":455000,"filled_profit":4970,"gp_day":2730000,"high_age_s":107,"low_age_s":360,"vol5m":142,"vol24h":529143},{"item_id":21944,"name":"Ruby dragon bolts (e)","ts":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z","buy_at":2882,"sell_at":2980,"margin":39,"roi_pct":1.35,"buy_limit":11000,"profit_per_limit":429000,"filled_profit":357825,"gp_day":2574000,"high_age_s":90,"low_age_s":131,"vol5m":9175,"vol24h":2288404},{"item_id":107,"name":"Cadantine potion (unf)","ts":"2026-08-01T21:11:00Z","buy_at":2615,"sell_at":2715,"margin":46,"roi_pct":1.76,"buy_limit":10000,"profit_per_limit":460000,"filled_profit":28842,"gp_day":2506770,"high_age_s":182,"low_age_s":747,"vol5m":627,"vol24h":363305},{"item_id":1749,"name":"Red dragonhide","ts":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z","buy_at":2125,"sell_at":2204,"margin":35,"roi_pct":1.65,"buy_limit":11000,"profit_per_limit":385000,"filled_profit":50575,"gp_day":2310000,"high_age_s":474,"low_age_s":85,"vol5m":1445,"vol24h":880996},{"item_id":2509,"name":"Black dragon leather","ts":"2026-08-01T21:10:00Z","buy_at":3514,"sell_at":3620,"margin":34,"roi_pct":0.97,"buy_limit":11000,"profit_per_limit":374000,"filled_profit":374000,"gp_day":2244000,"high_age_s":208,"low_age_s":625,"vol5m":11000,"vol24h":441292},{"item_id":29174,"na
… (truncated, 11224 bytes total)

call 5 — item_history (2026-08-01T21:13:29Z, 14ms)

params:

{"grain":"15min","lookback":"2d","name_or_id":"Dragon nails","source":"5m"}

result:

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… (truncated, 21232 bytes total)

call 6 — item_history (2026-08-01T21:13:30Z, 17ms)

params:

{"grain":"15min","lookback":"2d","name_or_id":"Lead bar","source":"5m"}

result:

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… (truncated, 21074 bytes total)

call 7 — item_history (2026-08-01T21:13:30Z, 16ms)

params:

{"grain":"15min","lookback":"2d","name_or_id":"Antidote++(4)","source":"5m"}

result:

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… (truncated, 21004 bytes total)

call 8 — item_history (2026-08-01T21:13:30Z, 15ms)

params:

{"grain":"15min","lookback":"2d","name_or_id":"Blue dragon leather","source":"5m"}

result:

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… (truncated, 20056 bytes total)

call 9 — item_history (2026-08-01T21:13:35Z, 14ms)

params:

{"grain":"15min","lookback":"2d","name_or_id":"Dragon arrow(p++)","source":"5m"}

result:

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… (truncated, 17139 bytes total)

call 10 — item_history (2026-08-01T21:13:35Z, 17ms)

params:

{"grain":"15min","lookback":"2d","name_or_id":"Sapphire dragon bolts (e)","source":"5m"}

result:

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… (truncated, 20940 bytes total)

call 11 — item_history (2026-08-01T21:13:35Z, 15ms)

params:

{"grain":"15min","lookback":"2d","name_or_id":"Irit potion (unf)","source":"5m"}

result:

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… (truncated, 20652 bytes total)

call 12 — item_history (2026-08-01T21:13:35Z, 15ms)

params:

{"grain":"15min","lookback":"2d","name_or_id":"Diamond dragon bolts (e)","source":"5m"}

result:

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… (truncated, 21427 bytes total)

call 13 — item_history (2026-08-01T21:13:40Z, 16ms)

params:

{"grain":"15min","lookback":"2d","name_or_id":"Moonlight antelope fur","source":"5m"}

result:

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… (truncated, 20688 bytes total)

call 14 — item_history (2026-08-01T21:13:40Z, 11ms)

params:

{"grain":"15min","lookback":"2d","name_or_id":"Harralander potion (unf)","source":"5m"}

result:

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… (truncated, 20648 bytes total)

call 15 — item_history (2026-08-01T21:13:40Z, 8ms)

params:

{"grain":"15min","lookback":"2d","name_or_id":"Sanfew serum(4)","source":"5m"}

result:

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… (truncated, 21535 bytes total)

call 16 — item_history (2026-08-01T21:13:40Z, 7ms)

params:

{"grain":"15min","lookback":"2d","name_or_id":"Lava dragon bones","source":"5m"}

result:

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… (truncated, 20260 bytes total)

call 17 — item_history (2026-08-01T21:13:50Z, 16ms)

params:

{"grain":"15min","lookback":"2d","name_or_id":"Papaya fruit","source":"5m"}

result:

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… (truncated, 21215 bytes total)

call 18 — item_history (2026-08-01T21:13:50Z, 16ms)

params:

{"grain":"15min","lookback":"2d","name_or_id":"Necklace of passage(5)","source":"5m"}

result:

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… (truncated, 21005 bytes total)

call 19 — item_history (2026-08-01T21:13:50Z, 15ms)

params:

{"grain":"15min","lookback":"2d","name_or_id":"Ruby dragon bolts (e)","source":"5m"}

result:

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… (truncated, 21582 bytes total)

call 20 — top_flips (2026-08-01T21:13:50Z, 576ms)

params:

{"limit":30,"max_age":"30min","min_price":10000000,"min_vol24h":200,"sort_by":"margin"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:13:51.180823054Z","data_window":null,"row_count":0,"rows":[],"note":"no flips pass the freshness + liquidity gates","meta":{"gp_day_basis":"margin x min(buy_limit x 6 cycles/day, 15% participation of vol24h); a ceiling, not a promise — self-impact and fill risk are yours to model","min_price":10000000,"min_vol24h":200,"min_volume":50,"sort_by":"margin"}}

call 21 — item_history (2026-08-01T21:13:59Z, 14ms)

params:

{"grain":"15min","lookback":"2d","name_or_id":"Mahogany repair kit","source":"5m"}

result:

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… (truncated, 21111 bytes total)

call 22 — item_history (2026-08-01T21:13:59Z, 15ms)

params:

{"grain":"15min","lookback":"2d","name_or_id":"Cadantine potion (unf)","source":"5m"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:13:59.7234527Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-07-30T21:13:59.718047743Z","to":"2026-08-01T21:13:59.718047743Z"},"row_count":190,"rows":[{"bucket":"2026-07-30T21:15:00Z","avg_high":2848,"avg_low":2827,"high_volume":1568,"low_volume":190,"obs":3},{"bucket":"2026-07-30T21:30:00Z","avg_high":2848,"avg_low":2827,"high_volume":3,"low_volume":48,"obs":3},{"bucket":"2026-07-30T21:45:00Z","avg_high":2840,"avg_low":null,"high_volume":422,"low_volume":0,"obs":3},{"bucket":"2026-07-30T22:00:00Z","avg_high":2840,"avg_low":2728,"high_volume":17645,"low_volume":1426,"obs":3},{"bucket":"2026-07-30T22:15:00Z","avg_high":2752,"avg_low":2700,"high_volume":51,"low_volume":36,"obs":3},{"bucket":"2026-07-30T22:30:00Z","avg_high":2826,"avg_low":null,"high_volume":3,"low_volume":0,"obs":1},{"bucket":"2026-07-30T22:45:00Z","avg_high":2826,"avg_low":null,"high_volume":3039,"low_volume":0,"obs":2},{"bucket":"2026-07-30T23:00:00Z","avg_high":2825,"avg_low":2800,"high_volume":4353,"low_volume":11,"obs":2},{"bucket":"2026-07-30T23:15:00Z","avg_high":2823,"avg_low":2812,"high_volume":999,"low_volume":269,"obs":2},{"bucket":"2026-07-30T23:30:00Z","avg_high":2822,"avg_low":2816,"high_volume":1003,"low_volume":501,"obs":2},{"bucket":"2026-07-30T23:45:00Z","avg_high":2822,"avg_low":2811,"high_volume":1,"low_volume":212,"obs":2},{"bucket":"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","avg_high":null,"avg_low":2745,"high_volume":0,"low_volume":7744,"obs":2},{"bucket":"2026-07-31T00:30:00Z","avg_high":2821,"avg_low":2745,"high_volume":808,"low_volume":100,"obs":2},{"bucket":"2026-07-31T00:45:00Z","avg_high":2821,"avg_low":null,"high_volume":2897,"low_volume":0,"obs":2},{"bucket":"2026-07-31T01:00:00Z","avg_high":2821,"avg_low":2746,"high_volume":4775,"low_volume":227,"obs":3},{"bucket":"2026-07-31T01:15:00Z","avg_high":2821,"avg_low":2746,"high_volume":152,"low_volume":122,"obs":2},{"bucket":"2026-07-31T01:30:00Z","avg_high":2819,"avg_low":2746,"high_volume":2537,"low_volume":637,"obs":3},{"bucket":"2026-07-31T01:45:00Z","avg_high":2810,"avg_low":2746,"high_volume":2,"low_volume":37,"obs":2},{"bucket":"2026-07-31T02:00:00Z","avg_high":2790,"avg_low":2746,"high_volume":20604,"low_volume":3,"obs":3},{"bucket":"2026-07-31T02:15:00Z","avg_high":2809,"avg_low":2745,"high_volume":284,"low_volume":379,"obs":3},{"bucket":"2026-07-31T02:30:00Z","avg_high":2808,"avg_low":2745,"high_volume":4325,"low_volume":1,"obs":3},{"bucket":"2026-07-31T02:45:00Z","avg_high":2775,"avg_low":2766,"high_volume":1,"low_volume":8,"obs":1},{"bucket":"2026-07-31T03:00:00Z","avg_high":2810,"avg_low":2766,"high_volume":5268,"low_volume":10,"obs":3},{"bucket":"2026-07-31T03:15:00Z","avg_high":null,"avg_low":2766,"high_volume":0,"low_volume":97,"obs":2},{"bucket":"2026-07-31T03:30:00Z","avg_high":null,"avg_low":2749,"high_volume":0,"low_volume":1754,"obs":1},{"bucket":"2026-07-31T03:45:00Z","avg_high":2812,"avg_low":null,"high_volume":460,"low_volume":0,"obs":1},{"bucket":"2026-07-31T04:00:00Z","avg_high":2777,"avg_low":2745,"high_volume":4,"low_volume":2699,"obs":3},{"bucket":"2026-07-31T04:15:00Z","avg_high":2783,"avg_low":2745,"high_volume":14,"low_volume":49,"obs":2},{"bucket":"2026-07-31T04:30:00Z","avg_high":2816,"avg_low":null,"high_volume":5896,"low_volume":0,"obs":2},{"bucket":"2026-07-31T04:45:00Z","avg_high":2812,"avg_low":null,"high_volume":140,"low_volume":0,"obs":1},{"bucket":"2026-07-31T05:15:00Z","avg_high":2868,"avg_low":2745,"high_volume":3003,"low_volume":2,"obs":2},{"bucket":"2026-07-31T05:30:00Z","avg_high":2867,"avg_low":null,"high_volume":450,"low_volume":0,"obs":3},{"bucket":"2026-07-31T05:45:00Z","avg_high":2862,"avg_low":null,"high_volume":4,"low_volume":0,"obs":2},{"bucket":"2026-07-31T06:00:00Z","avg_high":2816,"avg_low":null,"high_volume":10070,"low_volume":0,"obs":2},{"bucket":"2026-07-31T06:15:00Z","avg_high":2814,"avg_low":2745,"high_volume":3115,"low_volume":2637,"obs":2},{"bucket":"2026-07-31T06:30:00Z","avg_high":2835,"avg_low":2745,"high_volume":3200,"low_volume":
… (truncated, 20644 bytes total)

call 23 — item_history (2026-08-01T21:13:59Z, 16ms)

params:

{"grain":"15min","lookback":"2d","name_or_id":"Black dragon leather","source":"5m"}

result:

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… (truncated, 20073 bytes total)

call 24 — item_history (2026-08-01T21:13:59Z, 17ms)

params:

{"grain":"15min","lookback":"2d","name_or_id":"Red dragonhide","source":"5m"}

result:

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… (truncated, 21236 bytes total)

call 25 — quote (2026-08-01T21:14:06Z, 10ms)

params:

{"name_or_id":"Dragon nails"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:14:06.1299646Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-08-01T21:13:00Z","to":"2026-08-01T21:13:00Z"},"row_count":1,"rows":[{"item_id":31406,"name":"Dragon nails","ts":"2026-08-01T21:13:00Z","high":14207,"high_time":"2026-08-01T21:13:10Z","high_age_s":56,"low":13622,"low_time":"2026-08-01T21:10:19Z","low_age_s":227,"margin":301,"vol5m":103}],"resolved":{"item_id":31406,"name":"Dragon nails"}}

call 26 — quote (2026-08-01T21:14:06Z, 9ms)

params:

{"name_or_id":"Lead bar"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:14:06.138803569Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-08-01T21:13:00Z","to":"2026-08-01T21:13:00Z"},"row_count":1,"rows":[{"item_id":32889,"name":"Lead bar","ts":"2026-08-01T21:13:00Z","high":2600,"high_time":"2026-08-01T21:13:19Z","high_age_s":47,"low":2561,"low_time":"2026-08-01T21:11:08Z","low_age_s":178,"margin":-13,"vol5m":621}],"resolved":{"item_id":32889,"name":"Lead bar"}}

call 27 — quote (2026-08-01T21:14:06Z, 9ms)

params:

{"name_or_id":"Blue dragon leather"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:14:06.147581167Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z","to":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z"},"row_count":1,"rows":[{"item_id":2505,"name":"Blue dragon leather","ts":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z","high":2188,"high_time":"2026-08-01T21:11:26Z","high_age_s":160,"low":2102,"low_time":"2026-08-01T21:11:24Z","low_age_s":162,"margin":43,"vol5m":11514}],"resolved":{"item_id":2505,"name":"Blue dragon leather"}}

call 28 — quote (2026-08-01T21:14:06Z, 9ms)

params:

{"name_or_id":"Ruby dragon bolts (e)"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:14:06.156293116Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-08-01T21:13:00Z","to":"2026-08-01T21:13:00Z"},"row_count":1,"rows":[{"item_id":21944,"name":"Ruby dragon bolts (e)","ts":"2026-08-01T21:13:00Z","high":2999,"high_time":"2026-08-01T21:13:17Z","high_age_s":49,"low":2882,"low_time":"2026-08-01T21:11:15Z","low_age_s":171,"margin":58,"vol5m":9175}],"resolved":{"item_id":21944,"name":"Ruby dragon bolts (e)"}}

call 29 — quote (2026-08-01T21:14:06Z, 9ms)

params:

{"name_or_id":"Mahogany repair kit"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:14:06.164974705Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-08-01T21:13:00Z","to":"2026-08-01T21:13:00Z"},"row_count":1,"rows":[{"item_id":31973,"name":"Mahogany repair kit","ts":"2026-08-01T21:13:00Z","high":1134,"high_time":"2026-08-01T21:13:14Z","high_age_s":52,"low":1077,"low_time":"2026-08-01T21:07:26Z","low_age_s":400,"margin":35,"vol5m":142}],"resolved":{"item_id":31973,"name":"Mahogany repair kit"}}

call 30 — quote (2026-08-01T21:14:11Z, 10ms)

params:

{"name_or_id":"Papaya fruit"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:14:11.197254246Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-08-01T21:13:00Z","to":"2026-08-01T21:13:00Z"},"row_count":1,"rows":[{"item_id":5972,"name":"Papaya fruit","ts":"2026-08-01T21:13:00Z","high":1752,"high_time":"2026-08-01T21:09:40Z","high_age_s":271,"low":1675,"low_time":"2026-08-01T21:12:43Z","low_age_s":88,"margin":42,"vol5m":1856}],"resolved":{"item_id":5972,"name":"Papaya fruit"}}

call 31 — quote (2026-08-01T21:14:11Z, 7ms)

params:

{"name_or_id":"Yanillian hops"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:14:11.204241689Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-08-01T21:09:00Z","to":"2026-08-01T21:09:00Z"},"row_count":1,"rows":[{"item_id":5998,"name":"Yanillian hops","ts":"2026-08-01T21:09:00Z","high":870,"high_time":"2026-08-01T21:08:37Z","high_age_s":334,"low":837,"low_time":"2026-08-01T21:07:39Z","low_age_s":392,"margin":16,"vol5m":1693}],"resolved":{"item_id":5998,"name":"Yanillian hops"}}

call 32 — quote (2026-08-01T21:14:11Z, 7ms)

params:

{"name_or_id":"Guam potion (unf)"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:14:11.211758811Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z","to":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z"},"row_count":1,"rows":[{"item_id":91,"name":"Guam potion (unf)","ts":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z","high":399,"high_time":"2026-08-01T21:12:14Z","high_age_s":117,"low":387,"low_time":"2026-08-01T20:49:35Z","low_age_s":1476,"margin":5,"vol5m":149}],"resolved":{"item_id":91,"name":"Guam potion (unf)"}}

call 33 — quote (2026-08-01T21:14:11Z, 7ms)

params:

{"name_or_id":"Necklace of passage(5)"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:14:11.219046343Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-08-01T21:13:00Z","to":"2026-08-01T21:13:00Z"},"row_count":1,"rows":[{"item_id":21146,"name":"Necklace of passage(5)","ts":"2026-08-01T21:13:00Z","high":1862,"high_time":"2026-08-01T21:13:08Z","high_age_s":63,"low":1798,"low_time":"2026-08-01T21:11:27Z","low_age_s":164,"margin":27,"vol5m":308}],"resolved":{"item_id":21146,"name":"Necklace of passage(5)"}}

call 34 — quote (2026-08-01T21:14:11Z, 7ms)

params:

{"name_or_id":"Dragon arrow(p++)"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:14:11.226015516Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-08-01T21:11:00Z","to":"2026-08-01T21:11:00Z"},"row_count":1,"rows":[{"item_id":11229,"name":"Dragon arrow(p++)","ts":"2026-08-01T21:11:00Z","high":1841,"high_time":"2026-08-01T21:06:52Z","high_age_s":439,"low":1713,"low_time":"2026-08-01T21:11:13Z","low_age_s":178,"margin":92,"vol5m":2000}],"resolved":{"item_id":11229,"name":"Dragon arrow(p++)"}}

call 35 — quote (2026-08-01T21:14:16Z, 7ms)

params:

{"name_or_id":"Sanfew serum(4)"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:14:16.173850289Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z","to":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z"},"row_count":1,"rows":[{"item_id":10925,"name":"Sanfew serum(4)","ts":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z","high":19240,"high_time":"2026-08-01T21:11:51Z","high_age_s":145,"low":18705,"low_time":"2026-08-01T21:11:53Z","low_age_s":143,"margin":151,"vol5m":822}],"resolved":{"item_id":10925,"name":"Sanfew serum(4)"}}

call 36 — quote (2026-08-01T21:14:16Z, 7ms)

params:

{"name_or_id":"Moonlight antelope fur"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:14:16.180463983Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-08-01T21:11:00Z","to":"2026-08-01T21:11:00Z"},"row_count":1,"rows":[{"item_id":29174,"name":"Moonlight antelope fur","ts":"2026-08-01T21:11:00Z","high":500,"high_time":"2026-08-01T21:10:38Z","high_age_s":218,"low":470,"low_time":"2026-08-01T21:09:13Z","low_age_s":303,"margin":20,"vol5m":1129}],"resolved":{"item_id":29174,"name":"Moonlight antelope fur"}}

call 37 — quote (2026-08-01T21:14:16Z, 7ms)

params:

{"name_or_id":"Harralander potion (unf)"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:14:16.187162916Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-08-01T21:13:00Z","to":"2026-08-01T21:13:00Z"},"row_count":1,"rows":[{"item_id":97,"name":"Harralander potion (unf)","ts":"2026-08-01T21:13:00Z","high":610,"high_time":"2026-08-01T21:12:45Z","high_age_s":91,"low":565,"low_time":"2026-08-01T21:11:28Z","low_age_s":168,"margin":33,"vol5m":997}],"resolved":{"item_id":97,"name":"Harralander potion (unf)"}}

call 38 — quote (2026-08-01T21:14:16Z, 7ms)

params:

{"name_or_id":"Antidote++(4)"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:14:16.19404406Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-08-01T21:13:00Z","to":"2026-08-01T21:13:00Z"},"row_count":1,"rows":[{"item_id":5952,"name":"Antidote++(4)","ts":"2026-08-01T21:13:00Z","high":9000,"high_time":"2026-08-01T21:08:49Z","high_age_s":327,"low":8601,"low_time":"2026-08-01T21:12:57Z","low_age_s":79,"margin":219,"vol5m":1605}],"resolved":{"item_id":5952,"name":"Antidote++(4)"}}

call 39 — quote (2026-08-01T21:14:16Z, 7ms)

params:

{"name_or_id":"Black dragon leather"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:14:16.200673744Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-08-01T21:10:00Z","to":"2026-08-01T21:10:00Z"},"row_count":1,"rows":[{"item_id":2509,"name":"Black dragon leather","ts":"2026-08-01T21:10:00Z","high":3620,"high_time":"2026-08-01T21:09:58Z","high_age_s":258,"low":3514,"low_time":"2026-08-01T21:03:01Z","low_age_s":675,"margin":34,"vol5m":11000}],"resolved":{"item_id":2509,"name":"Black dragon leather"}}

call 40 — quote (2026-08-01T21:14:18Z, 9ms)

params:

{"name_or_id":"Ensouled dagannoth head"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:14:18.777233541Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z","to":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z"},"row_count":1,"rows":[{"item_id":13493,"name":"Ensouled dagannoth head","ts":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z","high":1255,"high_time":"2026-08-01T20:53:53Z","high_age_s":1226,"low":1202,"low_time":"2026-08-01T21:11:50Z","low_age_s":149,"margin":28,"vol5m":0}],"resolved":{"item_id":13493,"name":"Ensouled dagannoth head"}}

call 41 — quote (2026-08-01T21:14:18Z, 7ms)

params:

{"name_or_id":"Steel brutal"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:14:18.784798003Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-08-01T20:19:00Z","to":"2026-08-01T20:19:00Z"},"row_count":1,"rows":[{"item_id":4783,"name":"Steel brutal","ts":"2026-08-01T20:19:00Z","high":215,"high_time":"2026-08-01T20:19:12Z","high_age_s":3307,"low":110,"low_time":"2026-08-01T19:44:44Z","low_age_s":5375,"margin":101,"vol5m":0}],"resolved":{"item_id":4783,"name":"Steel brutal"}}

call 42 — quote (2026-08-01T21:14:18Z, 7ms)

params:

{"name_or_id":"Raw rainbow fish"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:14:18.792097606Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-08-01T20:20:00Z","to":"2026-08-01T20:20:00Z"},"row_count":1,"rows":[{"item_id":10138,"name":"Raw rainbow fish","ts":"2026-08-01T20:20:00Z","high":251,"high_time":"2026-08-01T19:56:56Z","high_age_s":4643,"low":248,"low_time":"2026-08-01T20:19:39Z","low_age_s":3280,"margin":-2,"vol5m":0}],"resolved":{"item_id":10138,"name":"Raw rainbow fish"}}

call 43 — quote (2026-08-01T21:14:18Z, 7ms)

params:

{"name_or_id":"Irit potion (unf)"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:14:18.799522808Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z","to":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z"},"row_count":1,"rows":[{"item_id":101,"name":"Irit potion (unf)","ts":"2026-08-01T21:12:00Z","high":1713,"high_time":"2026-08-01T21:11:21Z","high_age_s":178,"low":1630,"low_time":"2026-08-01T21:11:47Z","low_age_s":152,"margin":49,"vol5m":1589}],"resolved":{"item_id":101,"name":"Irit potion (unf)"}}

call 44 — liquidity (2026-08-01T21:14:29Z, 8ms)

params:

{"name_or_id":"Ruby dragon bolts (e)","window":"1h"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:14:29.140816003Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-08-01T20:14:29.139673026Z","to":"2026-08-01T21:14:29.139673026Z"},"row_count":1,"rows":[{"item_id":21944,"name":"Ruby dragon bolts (e)","vol5m_total":139282,"high_volume":92437,"low_volume":46845,"window":"1h","n_buckets":11}],"resolved":{"item_id":21944,"name":"Ruby dragon bolts (e)"}}

call 45 — liquidity (2026-08-01T21:14:29Z, 6ms)

params:

{"name_or_id":"Blue dragon leather","window":"1h"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:14:29.147347837Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-08-01T20:14:29.146661579Z","to":"2026-08-01T21:14:29.146661579Z"},"row_count":1,"rows":[{"item_id":2505,"name":"Blue dragon leather","vol5m_total":18868,"high_volume":18667,"low_volume":201,"window":"1h","n_buckets":6}],"resolved":{"item_id":2505,"name":"Blue dragon leather"}}

call 46 — liquidity (2026-08-01T21:14:29Z, 6ms)

params:

{"name_or_id":"Mahogany repair kit","window":"1h"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:14:29.153654712Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-08-01T20:14:29.152992514Z","to":"2026-08-01T21:14:29.152992514Z"},"row_count":1,"rows":[{"item_id":31973,"name":"Mahogany repair kit","vol5m_total":12206,"high_volume":10472,"low_volume":1734,"window":"1h","n_buckets":11}],"resolved":{"item_id":31973,"name":"Mahogany repair kit"}}

call 47 — liquidity (2026-08-01T21:14:29Z, 6ms)

params:

{"name_or_id":"Dragon arrow(p++)","window":"1h"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:14:29.160109647Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-08-01T20:14:29.159432548Z","to":"2026-08-01T21:14:29.159432548Z"},"row_count":1,"rows":[{"item_id":11229,"name":"Dragon arrow(p++)","vol5m_total":8020,"high_volume":2323,"low_volume":5697,"window":"1h","n_buckets":9}],"resolved":{"item_id":11229,"name":"Dragon arrow(p++)"}}

call 48 — liquidity (2026-08-01T21:14:29Z, 6ms)

params:

{"name_or_id":"Moonlight antelope fur","window":"1h"}

result:

{"as_of":"2026-08-01T21:14:29.166388512Z","data_window":{"from":"2026-08-01T20:14:29.165745323Z","to":"2026-08-01T21:14:29.165745323Z"},"row_count":1,"rows":[{"item_id":29174,"name":"Moonlight antelope fur","vol5m_total":18634,"high_volume":16965,"low_volume":1669,"window":"1h","n_buckets":11}],"resolved":{"item_id":29174,"name":"Moonlight antelope fur"}}