F Halibut patient spread flip killed
kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: vol_ok, floor_ok, entry_reachable)
Halibut has traded in a tight 30-day band (avg_high 1820-1940, with one outlier spike to 2270 on 7/1-7/2 that fully unwound by 7/10). Both bid and ask refresh every few minutes on a 200k+ unit/day volume — fishermen dump at market, cooking buyers pay up. The ~30-60gp post-tax spread × full 10000 buy-limit × ~5 cycles/day is a patient but reliable lane. Recent 7d (1h grain) shows the spread consistently in the 30-90gp range with hourly prints.
Entry: place buy at 1840gp; convert fills to sell at 1939gp
Exit: sell at 1939gp; abandon position if margin < 30gp sustained
Kill switch: post-tax margin < 30gp on two consecutive live quote checks; price break below 1700gp sustained > 4h
From run 426 · F-halibut-20260731
Paper-trade evaluations (newest first, every 5 min)
| at | verdict | high | low | margin | vol 30m | gp/1h now | checks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34.9h ago | kill_signal | 1939 | 1888 | 13 | 407 | -732 | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 35.1h ago | kill_signal | 1939 | 1888 | 13 | 668 | -1201 | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 35.4h ago | kill_signal | 1939 | 1888 | 13 | 8167 | -14.7k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 35.8h ago | healthy | 1939 | 1837 | 64 | 6402 | 86.4k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 36.0h ago | healthy | 1939 | 1840 | 61 | 10.8k | 105.0k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |