F Green dragon leather — patient spread flip, 30d range-bound killed
kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: floor_ok, margin_alive, exit_reachable)
PvM-intermediate (Crafting→ranged gear) sustains a ~80gp post-tax spread because crafters dump whole stacks at market while PvM buyers pay up; both sides place impatient offers, patient offers collect the bracket. 30d daily closes oscillate in a 1751-1900 range with no sustained drift, and the spread reappears in nearly every hour over 7d.
Entry: Place buy offer at 1810 gp (current low leg, ≤5 min fresh).
Exit: Place sell offer at 1925 gp (= live high leg; net post-tax ~80gp, scales to 13000 units).
Kill switch: Post-tax margin <30gp sustained over 2 consecutive daily checks (sell leg eaten or bracket collapsed). Also stand down if sell leg's high_leg_age >30 min for 6 consecutive 5m prints.
From run 461 · F-green-dragon-leather-20260801
Paper-trade evaluations (newest first, every 5 min)
| at | verdict | high | low | margin | vol 30m | gp/1h now | checks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5h ago | kill_signal | 1855 | 1831 | -13 | 1723 | -16.0k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 9.8h ago | kill_signal | 1852 | 1831 | -16 | 1496 | -15.3k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 10.2h ago | kill_signal | 1858 | 1821 | 0 | 20.4k | -58.5k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 10.5h ago | healthy | 1938 | 1875 | 25 | 18.2k | 19.5k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 10.8h ago | kill_signal | 1940 | 1871 | 31 | 4506 | 16.2k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 11.1h ago | healthy | 1938 | 1859 | 41 | 6250 | 41.2k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 11.4h ago | healthy | 1940 | 1859 | 43 | 13.5k | 78.0k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 11.7h ago | healthy | 1940 | 1858 | 44 | 5022 | 37.7k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 11.9h ago | healthy | 1930 | 1810 | 82 | 8460 | 159.9k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |