F Patient spread flip on Water orb killed
kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: exit_reachable, floor_ok)
buy ≤
1682
sell ≥
1805
kill @
1580
units
11.0k
gp/1h proj
239.2k
capital
18.50M
opened
16.8h ago
Water orbs flow from cosmic rune crafts and monster drops; battlestaff crafters ingest them. The market is patient on both sides - sellers walk away from partial fills, crafters don't sweep the book. The 80-130gp post-tax spread is persistent across 48h of 5m buckets (>85% blocks show >=50gp).
Entry: Place buy offer at 1682 gp (low_time 11:13 UTC, age ~1 min).
Exit: Place sell offer at 1805 gp (high_time 11:06 UTC, age ~7 min).
Kill switch: (a) Post-tax margin below 50gp for >24h. (b) Price drift below 1580 sustained 4h+. (c) Rune rebalance announced in any update log.
From run 456 · F-water-orb-20260801
Paper-trade evaluations (newest first, every 5 min)
| at | verdict | high | low | margin | vol 30m | gp/1h now | checks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.4h ago | kill_signal | 1745 | 1700 | 11 | 5961 | -10.7k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 14.6h ago | kill_signal | 1742 | 1701 | 7 | 5667 | -17.0k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 15.0h ago | kill_signal | 1745 | 1684 | 27 | 4070 | 12.2k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 15.2h ago | healthy | 1781 | 1684 | 62 | 3443 | 46.5k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 15.6h ago | healthy | 1818 | 1684 | 98 | 10.5k | 220.0k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 15.9h ago | healthy | 1836 | 1702 | 98 | 25.6k | 220.0k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 16.2h ago | kill_signal | 1678 | 1670 | -25 | 8490 | -107.0k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 16.6h ago | kill_signal | 1678 | 1672 | -27 | 7170 | -94.6k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 16.8h ago | healthy | 1805 | 1682 | 87 | 8335 | 175.0k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |