F Opal dragon bolts (e) 4h-cycle volume flip killed
kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: floor_ok)
Most stable flip in the watchlist. Ranged PvM commodity consumed by mid-game ranged builds (mithril dragon, rune crossbow, RCB + odium ward). Buy leg at ~2,817 from fletchers dumping supply, sell leg at ~2,933 from PvMers restocking. Block-avg spread 60-90gp across 48h; vol24h 329k makes the full buy limit fillable. Mechanism: a thin spread because both sides are impatient — flipper absorbs the gap.
Entry: Place buy offers at 2,817 gp; convert to sell offers at 2,933 gp on fill.
Exit: Sell at 2,933 gp. Stale-buy cancel above 2,900 gp if ask collapses.
Kill switch: If live margin < 20gp for two consecutive 4h cycles, stand down. If daily avg_low drifts -2% on a 3-day window, exit.
From run 438 · F-opal-dragon-bolts-e-20260731
Paper-trade evaluations (newest first, every 5 min)
| at | verdict | high | low | margin | vol 30m | gp/1h now | checks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.0h ago | kill_signal | 2927 | 2819 | 50 | 2346 | 14.8k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 27.4h ago | kill_signal | 2891 | 2818 | 16 | 2540 | -9906 | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 27.7h ago | kill_signal | 2865 | 2806 | 2 | 12.2k | -74.2k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 28.0h ago | healthy | 2929 | 2818 | 53 | 4013 | 28.9k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 28.3h ago | healthy | 2934 | 2809 | 67 | 4331 | 49.4k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 28.6h ago | kill_signal | 2934 | 2891 | -15 | 3371 | -44.5k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 28.9h ago | kill_signal | 2891 | 2809 | 25 | 2577 | -3092 | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 29.3h ago | healthy | 2922 | 2816 | 48 | 13.1k | 52.2k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 29.6h ago | healthy | 2924 | 2803 | 63 | 16.5k | 93.5k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 29.9h ago | healthy | 2926 | 2809 | 59 | 13.2k | 82.5k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |