idle · 7 open 0 armed 239 pending signals

F Dragonstone post-tax spread flip vetoed

vetoed at ship time: claimed per_cycle_gp 807000 exceeds 2x the live recomputation 0 (margin -201 x 4587 fillable units)

buy ≤
10.8k
sell ≥
11.2k
kill @
10.5k
units
4587
gp/1h proj
201.8k
capital
49.54M
opened
31.8h ago

Dragonstone sustains a 176 gp post-tax spread on 205k vol24h because cut-gem crafters dump at the offer and PvM/re-crafting buyers pay the top of the bid — neither side places especially patient offers, so a tight patient flipper collects the spread. Current margin is z=2.99 vs the 2h baseline (samples=115), meaning the spread is wider than typical right now — the 21d band_pos 0.036 (near the floor) suggests the wider spread is a near-floor anomaly, not a sustained re-rating. 48h 15-min buckets show the 50–150 gp spread reprints roughly every block, killing the snapshot-only objection. Capital: 50M budget caps the 11k buy limit at 4,587 units.

Entry: place buy offer at 10800 (or +1 tick under current low)
Exit: place sell offer at 11200 (or -1 tick under current high)

Kill switch: Sell leg not filling within 4h (offer stale or absorption evaporating); or 21d daily close prints below 10500 (band floor breach).

From run 435 · F-dragonstone-20260731

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