F Water orb patient-flip on PvM rune commodity killed
kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: entry_reachable, floor_ok)
Water orbs are a steady-state magic consumable (mahjarrat / demonic gorillas / Zulrah / Nightmare) where patient sellers list at 1730+ for impatient PvM buyers and patient buyers floor at ~1600; the structural impatience-vs-patience gap yields a persistent ~67gp post-tax spread per cycle on a 4h buy-limit of 11000 units, plus a modest uptrend in daily closes (~9% over 30d) that protects the sell leg from fill risk.
Entry: Buy 11000 units at 1635 gp or lower over a 4h window; place patient offers ~10gp above the current low, walk up to the buy-at if the spread widens.
Exit: Sell 11000 units at 1736 gp or higher over the next 4h; convert at the ask if margin is alive; never accept sells below 1700.
Kill switch: live margin <40gp on two consecutive quote checks; OR 30d daily closes break the uptrend (avg_low falls below 1534 in next 7d); OR any patch note rebalancing water rune alch value or magic weapon speed affecting orb demand.
From run 432 · F-water-orb-20260731
Paper-trade evaluations (newest first, every 5 min)
| at | verdict | high | low | margin | vol 30m | gp/1h now | checks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32.0h ago | kill_signal | 1726 | 1690 | 2 | 7478 | -33.6k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 32.3h ago | kill_signal | 1675 | 1632 | 10 | 5424 | -11.4k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 32.7h ago | kill_signal | 1658 | 1634 | -9 | 11.9k | -68.8k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 32.9h ago | healthy | 1693 | 1636 | 24 | 15.2k | 19.2k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |