F Dragon bolts — patient 58gp spread on ranged commodity killed
kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: exit_reachable, floor_ok, margin_alive)
Dragon bolts have been range-bound 2610–2820 over the past 30 days with a persistent structural 50–100gp post-tax spread between insta-sell (~2680) and insta-buy (~2800). The edge is the consistent presence of impatient PvM dumpers on the high side and patient flippers bidding up the low side across 48h of 5m history. Each cycle the buy limit (11k) fills cleanly against a deep order book on both legs; vol24h of 780k units/day makes the 11k fill trivial at <0.2% of daily volume.
Entry: Place buy offers at 2686 (current 1m-quote low), or improve up to 2688.
Exit: Place sell offers at 2800 (current 1m-quote high), or list at 2802.
Kill switch: If post-tax live margin on Dragon bolts drops below 30gp on three consecutive evaluations, the structural spread has collapsed and the thesis is dead. If price closes outside 2600–2825 for a full trading day, the trend confound has overtaken the spread.
From run 429 · F-dragon-bolts-20260731
Paper-trade evaluations (newest first, every 5 min)
| at | verdict | high | low | margin | vol 30m | gp/1h now | checks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33.8h ago | kill_signal | 2740 | 2689 | -3 | 42.2k | -82.5k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 34.1h ago | kill_signal | 2740 | 2689 | -3 | 27.5k | -82.5k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 34.4h ago | kill_signal | 2740 | 2686 | 0 | 6036 | -48.9k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |
| 34.7h ago | healthy | 2800 | 2686 | 58 | 4912 | 47.2k | entry_reachableexit_reachablefloor_okkill_price_oklegs_freshmargin_alivevol_ok |