idle · 6 open 0 armed 228 pending signals

Run 451 failed started 20.9h ago

ge-agent failed: exit status 1; tail: ge-agent: 2026/08/01 06:12:39 tool item_history (err=false, 3517 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/08/01 06:12:39 tool quote (err=false, 432 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/08/01 06:12:39 tool quote (err=false, 408 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/08/01 06:12:53 turn 8: stop=tool_use in=3146 out=834 | ge-agent: 2026/08/01 06:12:53 tool movers (err=false, 1856 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/08/01 06:12:53 tool top_flips (err=false, 4444 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/08/01 06:12:59 turn 9: stop=tool_use in=2538 out=398 | ge-agent: 2026/08/01 06:12:59 tool item_history (err=false, 3528 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/08/01 06:12:59 tool item_history (err=false, 3508 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/08/01 06:13:00 tool item_history (err=false, 3501 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/08/01 06:13:00 tool lookup_item (err=false, 224 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/08/01 06:13:20 turn 10: stop=tool_use in=4292 out=1192 | ge-agent: 2026/08/01 06:13:20 tool item_history (err=false, 3470 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/08/01 06:13:20 tool item_history (err=false, 30320 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/08/01 06:13:35 turn 11: stop=tool_use in=13580 out=814 | ge-agent: 2026/08/01 06:13:35 tool item_history (err=false, 28006 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/08/01 06:13:35 tool quote (err=false, 411 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/08/01 06:13:35 tool liquidity (err=false, 344 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/08/01 06:13:44 turn 12: stop=tool_use in=11414 out=487 | ge-agent: 2026/08/01 06:13:44 tool write_report_markdown: call write_report_markdown: invalid params: tool 'write_report_markdown' not found: tool not found
Brief sent to the agent 
_Generated 2026-08-01 06:11 UTC._

### Constraints
- Research budget: 50,000,000 gp, a PER-OPPORTUNITY sizing scale — size every strategy independently against the full budget; the Open book does not drain it. No single strategy's capital_required may exceed it.
- Risk appetite: low.
- Minimum confidence to ship a strategy: medium.
- Archetype weights (0 = do not pitch it at all; >1 = favor): F(volume flip) 1.5, B(high-value flip) 1.2, V(volume anomaly) 0.5, U(update/event) 0.5,
- Objective: rank ALL viable options by absolute post-tax gp/day at fillable size. The floor is absolute (F: 200k gp/cycle, B: 100k) — dismiss below-floor candidates whatever their ROI%. Shipping NOTHING is a legitimate outcome when nothing clears the bar.
- Every F/B strategy must state its attention contract (offer cadence, longest safe unattended window, reaction risk) — the operator decides what fits their day.

### Open book (already paper-trading — informational: dedup is enforced at ingest, capital is NOT drained by it)
- Do NOT pitch an item that already has an open/armed strategy of the same archetype — it is vetoed at ingest.
- [B] Dragon claws (item_id 13652, open): 42,121,427 gp committed, opened 07-28
- [B] Voidwaker (item_id 27690, open): 38,612,736 gp committed, opened 07-30
- [B] Dragon hunter crossbow (item_id 21012, open): 31,412,554 gp committed, opened 07-30
- [B] Bellator ring (item_id 28316, open): 46,934,332 gp committed, opened 07-31
- [F] Sapphire dragon bolts (e) (item_id 21940, open): 32,615,000 gp committed, opened 07-31
- [B] Saradomin godsword (item_id 11806, open): 44,975,958 gp committed, opened 07-31
- [B] Osmumten's fang (item_id 26219, open): 17,340,945 gp committed, opened 07-31
- [F] Antidote++(4) (item_id 5952, open): 33,968,000 gp committed, opened 08-01
- [B] Hydra leather (item_id 22983, open): 40,500,000 gp committed, opened 08-01
- [F] Diamond necklace (item_id 1662, open): 33,012,000 gp committed, opened 08-01

### Assigned candidates (from the collector's work queue — investigate these FIRST)
Every signal below needs a verdict in submit_report's `signal_verdicts`: `shipped` (name the strategy id) or `dismissed` (name the falsification that killed it).
- signal_id 15306 [hvflip] Venator ring (item_id 28310): {"low":47005000,"high":48882123,"name":"Venator ring","margin":899481,"vol24h":529,"item_id":28310,"gp_cycle":899481,"buy_limit":0,"low_age_s":1407,"high_age_s":432,"units_affordable":1}
- signal_id 15308 [hvflip] Magus ring (item_id 28313): {"low":23134923,"high":24807519,"name":"Magus ring","margin":1176446,"vol24h":747,"item_id":28313,"gp_cycle":1176446,"buy_limit":0,"low_age_s":117,"high_age_s":594,"units_affordable":1}
- signal_id 15316 [hvflip] Bandos chestplate (item_id 11832): {"low":22905730,"high":23474537,"name":"Bandos chestplate","margin":99317,"vol24h":2139,"item_id":11832,"gp_cycle":198634,"buy_limit":8,"low_age_s":104,"high_age_s":133,"units_affordable":2}
- signal_id 15317 [hvflip] Craw's bow (u) (item_id 22547): {"low":16185005,"high":16629487,"name":"Craw's bow (u)","margin":111893,"vol24h":269,"item_id":22547,"gp_cycle":335679,"buy_limit":8,"low_age_s":535,"high_age_s":210,"units_affordable":3}
- signal_id 15318 [hvflip] Masori mask (f) (item_id 27235): {"low":17422862,"high":17946207,"name":"Masori mask (f)","margin":164421,"vol24h":469,"item_id":27235,"gp_cycle":328842,"buy_limit":8,"low_age_s":277,"high_age_s":966,"units_affordable":2}
- signal_id 15327 [hvflip] Dinh's bulwark (item_id 21015): {"low":12047489,"high":12367271,"name":"Dinh's bulwark","margin":72437,"vol24h":794,"item_id":21015,"gp_cycle":289748,"buy_limit":8,"low_age_s":474,"high_age_s":89,"units_affordable":4}
- signal_id 15328 [hvflip] Twisted buckler (item_id 21000): {"low":13837633,"high":14200000,"name":"Twisted buckler","margin":78367,"vol24h":1338,"item_id":21000,"gp_cycle":235101,"buy_limit":8,"low_age_s":728,"high_age_s":126,"units_affordable":3}
- signal_id 15331 [volume] Raw mackerel (item_id 353): {"z":9.59,"buys":13871,"name":"Raw mackerel","sells":13810,"cur_vol":27681,"item_id":353,"cur_price":9,"n_baseline":168,"price_move_pct":12.5}
- signal_id 15332 [volume] Raw beast meat (item_id 9986): {"z":8.12,"buys":38,"name":"Raw beast meat","sells":13951,"cur_vol":13989,"item_id":9986,"cur_price":67,"n_baseline":157,"price_move_pct":-4.29}
- signal_id 15334 [vflip] Vial of blood (item_id 22446): {"low":7620,"high":7857,"name":"Vial of blood","margin":80,"vol24h":267174,"item_id":22446,"gp_cycle":1040000,"buy_limit":13000,"low_age_s":197,"high_age_s":207}

### Latest market sweep (collector, no-LLM — re-verify anything you act on with live tools)
- lane F candidates: volume flips ranked by margin x buy_limit (gp_cycle) (as of 08-01 06:10):
  - {"low":233,"high":280,"name":"Grimy harralander","margin":42,"vol24h":497712,"item_id":205,"gp_cycle":546000,"buy_limit":13000,"low_age_s":104,"high_age_s":1162}
  - {"low":1925,"high":2000,"name":"Air orb","margin":35,"vol24h":1102472,"item_id":573,"gp_cycle":385000,"buy_limit":11000,"low_age_s":93,"high_age_s":90}
  - {"low":1085,"high":1152,"name":"Magic longbow","margin":44,"vol24h":1995250,"item_id":859,"gp_cycle":792000,"buy_limit":18000,"low_age_s":143,"high_age_s":289}
  - {"low":8407,"high":8736,"name":"Earth battlestaff","margin":155,"vol24h":319650,"item_id":1399,"gp_cycle":2790000,"buy_limit":18000,"low_age_s":96,"high_age_s":495}
  - {"low":610,"high":648,"name":"Emerald necklace","margin":26,"vol24h":830057,"item_id":1658,"gp_cycle":468000,"buy_limit":18000,"low_age_s":86,"high_age_s":69}
- lane B candidates: 10M+ flips ranked by absolute post-tax margin (as of 08-01 06:10):
  - {"low":34199262,"high":35196956,"name":"Armadyl crossbow","margin":293755,"vol24h":955,"item_id":11785,"gp_cycle":293755,"buy_limit":8,"low_age_s":671,"high_age_s":523,"units_affordable":1}
  - {"low":22238460,"high":22904868,"name":"Saradomin godsword","margin":208311,"vol24h":817,"item_id":11806,"gp_cycle":416622,"buy_limit":8,"low_age_s":258,"high_age_s":220,"units_affordable":2}
  - {"low":15165633,"high":15576915,"name":"Dragon warhammer","margin":99744,"vol24h":2086,"item_id":13576,"gp_cycle":299232,"buy_limit":8,"low_age_s":75,"high_age_s":152,"units_affordable":3}
  - {"low":17091478,"high":17649999,"name":"Tormented bracelet","margin":205522,"vol24h":1164,"item_id":19544,"gp_cycle":411044,"buy_limit":8,"low_age_s":269,"high_age_s":364,"units_affordable":2}
  - {"low":17147575,"high":17580471,"name":"Amulet of torture","margin":81287,"vol24h":1680,"item_id":19553,"gp_cycle":162574,"buy_limit":8,"low_age_s":202,"high_age_s":96,"units_affordable":2}
- volume anomalies (as of 08-01 06:10):
  - {"z":4.95,"buys":306,"name":"Fishing rod","sells":1,"cur_vol":307,"item_id":307,"cur_price":25,"n_baseline":168,"price_move_pct":-15.52}
  - {"z":6.03,"buys":40939,"name":"Air orb","sells":123125,"cur_vol":164064,"item_id":573,"cur_price":2001,"n_baseline":168,"price_move_pct":-3.75}
  - {"z":6.18,"buys":150,"name":"Black skirt","sells":0,"cur_vol":150,"item_id":1015,"cur_price":17,"n_baseline":146,"price_move_pct":0}
  - {"z":3.35,"buys":801,"name":"Leather vambraces","sells":0,"cur_vol":801,"item_id":1063,"cur_price":6,"n_baseline":168,"price_move_pct":200}
  - {"z":3.29,"buys":32,"name":"Adamant med helm","sells":277,"cur_vol":309,"item_id":1145,"cur_price":864,"n_baseline":168,"price_move_pct":-0.8}
- hour-of-week amplitude (timing evidence only — not a strategy source) (as of 08-01 06:10):
  - {"name":"Cup of hot water","item_id":4460,"avg_vol5m":703,"mean_price":492,"dear_bucket":36,"cheap_bucket":154,"amplitude_pct":42.64,"min_bucket_obs":11}
  - {"name":"Mithril brutal","item_id":4793,"avg_vol5m":620,"mean_price":251,"dear_bucket":138,"cheap_bucket":79,"amplitude_pct":45.37,"min_bucket_obs":22}
  - {"name":"Rune brutal","item_id":4803,"avg_vol5m":777,"mean_price":1009,"dear_bucket":136,"cheap_bucket":83,"amplitude_pct":27.17,"min_bucket_obs":40}
  - {"name":"Yew leaves","item_id":6026,"avg_vol5m":807,"mean_price":533,"dear_bucket":58,"cheap_bucket":160,"amplitude_pct":45.7,"min_bucket_obs":30}
  - {"name":"Raw summer pie","item_id":7216,"avg_vol5m":967,"mean_price":2026,"dear_bucket":44,"cheap_bucket":13,"amplitude_pct":51.84,"min_bucket_obs":25}
- below 21d band (lane-B qualification evidence only — not a strategy source) (as of 08-01 06:10):
  - {"obs":4502,"name":"Rune dart(p)","item_id":817,"cur_price":178,"range_low":166,"range_pos":0,"width_pct":14711.7,"range_high":24588}
  - {"obs":4915,"name":"Sapphire amulet","item_id":1694,"cur_price":521,"range_low":344,"range_pos":0.005,"width_pct":11171.1,"range_high":38773}
  - {"obs":5279,"name":"Cake","item_id":1891,"cur_price":185,"range_low":151,"range_pos":0.016,"width_pct":1413.2,"range_high":2285}
  - {"obs":5596,"name":"Blue d'hide chaps","item_id":2493,"cur_price":2076,"range_low":1190,"range_pos":0.011,"width_pct":6521,"range_high":78790}
  - {"obs":1161,"name":"Willow leaves","item_id":6024,"cur_price":151,"range_low":146,"range_pos":0.004,"width_pct":927.4,"range_high":1500}

### Track record (paper-traded by the harness with a self-impact haircut — weight your search by it)
- B: n=32 (7 open, 0 armed), 11 vetoed at ship time — check kill_price and capital against a live quote before shipping, 0% of closed confirmed, realized/projected -7.32 — projections have not held; require stronger evidence before pitching.
- F: n=541 (3 open, 0 armed), 463 vetoed at ship time — check kill_price and capital against a live quote before shipping, 0% of closed confirmed, realized/projected -0.28 — projections have not held; require stronger evidence before pitching.

### Recently killed/expired (do not re-pitch without materially new evidence)
- Dark crab persistent 35gp flip [F] killed: kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: margin_alive, exit_reachable, floor_ok)
- Searing page patient flip, 144gp spread, 3.7k units/h liquidity [F] killed: kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: floor_ok)
- Rune nails, stable mid-spread flip [F] killed: kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: exit_reachable, floor_ok)
- Grimy torstol, range-bound herb flip [F] killed: kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: exit_reachable, floor_ok, margin_alive)
- Mahogany repair kit — thin but persistent ~30 gp spread on a high-volume construction commodity [F] killed: kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: floor_ok, entry_reachable)
- Seeking dragon arrow — 49gp spread on a 4M-units/day range ammo [F] killed: kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: entry_reachable, floor_ok, margin_alive)
- Anglerfish — 80gp spread on the highest-volume cooked fish [F] killed: kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: margin_alive, entry_reachable, floor_ok)
- Opal dragon bolts (e) 4h-cycle volume flip [F] killed: kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: floor_ok)

### Operator notes
Volume flips: daily volume > 100k units, both sides printing within 30-60 min, weight by absolute margin x buy limit — evaluate how these items move through the day/week before shipping. Single-item flips: cost > 10M, bought and sold within 30 min, daily volume > 200 — quick but risky; require solid day-over-day and week-over-week trends before trusting the margin.