idle · 6 open 0 armed 228 pending signals

Run 424 failed started 36.1h ago

ge-agent failed: exit status 1; tail: ge-agent: 2026/07/31 15:00:08 tool quote (err=false, 412 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/07/31 15:00:08 tool quote (err=false, 401 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/07/31 15:00:08 tool quote (err=false, 430 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/07/31 15:00:08 tool quote (err=false, 406 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/07/31 15:00:08 tool quote (err=false, 415 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/07/31 15:00:08 tool quote (err=false, 400 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/07/31 15:00:08 tool quote (err=false, 411 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/07/31 15:00:08 tool quote (err=false, 400 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/07/31 15:00:08 tool lookup_item (err=false, 375 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/07/31 15:00:08 tool lookup_item (err=false, 227 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/07/31 15:00:08 tool lookup_item (err=false, 360 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/07/31 15:00:08 tool lookup_item (err=false, 250 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/07/31 15:00:08 tool lookup_item (err=false, 221 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/07/31 15:00:08 tool lookup_item (err=false, 1655 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/07/31 15:00:25 turn 6: stop=tool_use in=7447 out=1030 | ge-agent: 2026/07/31 15:00:25 tool quote (err=false, 407 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/07/31 15:00:25 tool item_history (err=false, 57157 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/07/31 15:00:25 tool quote (err=false, 403 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/07/31 15:00:25 tool quote (err=false, 406 bytes) | ge-agent: 2026/07/31 15:00:25 tool screenshot_args_validation: call screenshot_args_validation: invalid params: tool 'screenshot_args_validation' not found: tool not found
Brief sent to the agent 
_Generated 2026-07-31 14:59 UTC._

### Constraints
- Research budget: 50,000,000 gp, a PER-OPPORTUNITY sizing scale — size every strategy independently against the full budget; the Open book does not drain it. No single strategy's capital_required may exceed it.
- Risk appetite: low.
- Minimum confidence to ship a strategy: medium.
- Archetype weights (0 = do not pitch it at all; >1 = favor): F(volume flip) 1.5, B(high-value flip) 1.2, V(volume anomaly) 0.5, U(update/event) 0.5,
- Objective: rank ALL viable options by absolute post-tax gp/day at fillable size. The floor is absolute (F: 200k gp/cycle, B: 100k) — dismiss below-floor candidates whatever their ROI%. Shipping NOTHING is a legitimate outcome when nothing clears the bar.
- Every F/B strategy must state its attention contract (offer cadence, longest safe unattended window, reaction risk) — the operator decides what fits their day.

### Open book (already paper-trading — informational: dedup is enforced at ingest, capital is NOT drained by it)
- Do NOT pitch an item that already has an open/armed strategy of the same archetype — it is vetoed at ingest.
- [B] Dragon claws (item_id 13652, open): 42,121,427 gp committed, opened 07-28
- [B] Voidwaker (item_id 27690, open): 38,612,736 gp committed, opened 07-30
- [B] Dragon hunter crossbow (item_id 21012, open): 31,412,554 gp committed, opened 07-30
- [B] Bellator ring (item_id 28316, open): 46,934,332 gp committed, opened 07-31
- [F] Vial of blood (item_id 22446, open): 50,000,000 gp committed, opened 07-31
- [F] Mahogany repair kit (item_id 31973, open): 14,053,000 gp committed, opened 07-31

### Assigned candidates (from the collector's work queue — investigate these FIRST)
Every signal below needs a verdict in submit_report's `signal_verdicts`: `shipped` (name the strategy id) or `dismissed` (name the falsification that killed it).
- signal_id 14479 [hvflip] Noxious halberd (item_id 29796): {"low":38125008,"high":39118692,"name":"Noxious halberd","margin":211311,"vol24h":2211,"item_id":29796,"gp_cycle":211311,"buy_limit":8,"low_age_s":71,"high_age_s":206,"units_affordable":1}
- signal_id 14481 [hvflip] Virtus robe bottom (item_id 26245): {"low":24879625,"high":25524040,"name":"Virtus robe bottom","margin":133935,"vol24h":780,"item_id":26245,"gp_cycle":267870,"buy_limit":8,"low_age_s":777,"high_age_s":1222,"units_affordable":2}
- signal_id 14487 [volume] Chilli potato (item_id 7054): {"z":41.05,"buys":3942,"name":"Chilli potato","sells":2142,"cur_vol":6084,"item_id":7054,"cur_price":225,"n_baseline":166,"price_move_pct":37.73}
- signal_id 14488 [volume] Emerald dragon bolts (e) (item_id 21942): {"z":16.43,"buys":0,"name":"Emerald dragon bolts (e)","sells":10000,"cur_vol":10000,"item_id":21942,"cur_price":1533,"n_baseline":82,"price_move_pct":0}
- signal_id 14489 [volume] Sapphire amulet (u) (item_id 1675): {"z":8.66,"buys":10000,"name":"Sapphire amulet (u)","sells":934,"cur_vol":10934,"item_id":1675,"cur_price":419,"n_baseline":166,"price_move_pct":3.46}
- signal_id 14490 [volume] Feather (item_id 314): {"z":8.58,"buys":21040724,"name":"Feather","sells":6276,"cur_vol":21047000,"item_id":314,"cur_price":3,"n_baseline":168,"price_move_pct":50}
- signal_id 14492 [vflip] Dragonstone dragon bolts (e) (item_id 21948): {"low":2319,"high":2483,"name":"Dragonstone dragon bolts (e)","margin":115,"vol24h":123943,"item_id":21948,"gp_cycle":1265000,"buy_limit":11000,"low_age_s":68,"high_age_s":512}
- signal_id 14493 [vflip] Eclectic impling jar (item_id 11248): {"low":4557,"high":4733,"name":"Eclectic impling jar","margin":82,"vol24h":322823,"item_id":11248,"gp_cycle":1476000,"buy_limit":18000,"low_age_s":605,"high_age_s":164}
- signal_id 14497 [vflip] Burnt page (item_id 20718): {"low":4959,"high":5125,"name":"Burnt page","margin":64,"vol24h":350606,"item_id":20718,"gp_cycle":704000,"buy_limit":11000,"low_age_s":60,"high_age_s":31}
- signal_id 14499 [vflip] Dragonstone (item_id 1615): {"low":10767,"high":11054,"name":"Dragonstone","margin":66,"vol24h":184766,"item_id":1615,"gp_cycle":726000,"buy_limit":11000,"low_age_s":59,"high_age_s":67}

### Latest market sweep (collector, no-LLM — re-verify anything you act on with live tools)
- lane F candidates: volume flips ranked by margin x buy_limit (gp_cycle) (as of 07-31 14:58):
  - {"low":1454,"high":1569,"name":"Avantoe","margin":84,"vol24h":220050,"item_id":261,"gp_cycle":1092000,"buy_limit":13000,"low_age_s":85,"high_age_s":92}
  - {"low":1684,"high":1776,"name":"Earth orb","margin":57,"vol24h":621864,"item_id":575,"gp_cycle":627000,"buy_limit":11000,"low_age_s":106,"high_age_s":68}
  - {"low":161,"high":225,"name":"Mithril knife","margin":60,"vol24h":112513,"item_id":866,"gp_cycle":420000,"buy_limit":7000,"low_age_s":1034,"high_age_s":1163}
  - {"low":10767,"high":11054,"name":"Dragonstone","margin":66,"vol24h":184766,"item_id":1615,"gp_cycle":726000,"buy_limit":11000,"low_age_s":59,"high_age_s":67}
  - {"low":2550,"high":2865,"name":"Super strength(4)","margin":258,"vol24h":330223,"item_id":2440,"gp_cycle":516000,"buy_limit":2000,"low_age_s":290,"high_age_s":115}
- lane B candidates: 10M+ flips ranked by absolute post-tax margin (as of 07-31 14:58):
  - {"low":34426205,"high":35242452,"name":"Armadyl crossbow","margin":111398,"vol24h":910,"item_id":11785,"gp_cycle":111398,"buy_limit":8,"low_age_s":38,"high_age_s":155,"units_affordable":1}
  - {"low":17707294,"high":18137999,"name":"Bandos godsword","margin":67946,"vol24h":1768,"item_id":11804,"gp_cycle":135892,"buy_limit":8,"low_age_s":78,"high_age_s":42,"units_affordable":2}
  - {"low":22750001,"high":23335757,"name":"Bandos chestplate","margin":119041,"vol24h":2171,"item_id":11832,"gp_cycle":238082,"buy_limit":8,"low_age_s":56,"high_age_s":232,"units_affordable":2}
  - {"low":32350000,"high":33175628,"name":"Pegasian boots","margin":162116,"vol24h":980,"item_id":13237,"gp_cycle":162116,"buy_limit":15,"low_age_s":125,"high_age_s":186,"units_affordable":1}
  - {"low":18118006,"high":18551279,"name":"Primordial boots","margin":62248,"vol24h":1710,"item_id":13239,"gp_cycle":124496,"buy_limit":15,"low_age_s":122,"high_age_s":260,"units_affordable":2}
- volume anomalies (as of 07-31 14:58):
  - {"z":3.09,"buys":10608,"name":"Grimy tarromin","sells":25393,"cur_vol":36001,"item_id":203,"cur_price":113,"n_baseline":167,"price_move_pct":2.73}
  - {"z":7.26,"buys":3018,"name":"Grimy harralander","sells":69197,"cur_vol":72215,"item_id":205,"cur_price":323,"n_baseline":167,"price_move_pct":11.59}
  - {"z":3.68,"buys":14536,"name":"Unicorn horn","sells":240,"cur_vol":14776,"item_id":237,"cur_price":465,"n_baseline":167,"price_move_pct":4.26}
  - {"z":3.45,"buys":6524,"name":"Shrimps","sells":430,"cur_vol":6954,"item_id":315,"cur_price":24,"n_baseline":167,"price_move_pct":6.82}
  - {"z":3.19,"buys":4986,"name":"Babydragon bones","sells":5681,"cur_vol":10667,"item_id":534,"cur_price":1197,"n_baseline":167,"price_move_pct":7.45}
- hour-of-week amplitude (timing evidence only — not a strategy source) (as of 07-31 14:58):
  - {"name":"Cup of hot water","item_id":4460,"avg_vol5m":711,"mean_price":492,"dear_bucket":36,"cheap_bucket":154,"amplitude_pct":42.64,"min_bucket_obs":11}
  - {"name":"Mithril brutal","item_id":4793,"avg_vol5m":618,"mean_price":251,"dear_bucket":138,"cheap_bucket":79,"amplitude_pct":48.94,"min_bucket_obs":22}
  - {"name":"Rune brutal","item_id":4803,"avg_vol5m":778,"mean_price":1010,"dear_bucket":136,"cheap_bucket":83,"amplitude_pct":31.84,"min_bucket_obs":40}
  - {"name":"Yew leaves","item_id":6026,"avg_vol5m":810,"mean_price":533,"dear_bucket":58,"cheap_bucket":160,"amplitude_pct":45.7,"min_bucket_obs":30}
  - {"name":"Raw summer pie","item_id":7216,"avg_vol5m":967,"mean_price":2030,"dear_bucket":44,"cheap_bucket":13,"amplitude_pct":51.73,"min_bucket_obs":25}
- below 21d band (lane-B qualification evidence only — not a strategy source) (as of 07-31 14:58):
  - {"obs":2429,"name":"Superantipoison(3)","item_id":181,"cur_price":506,"range_low":500,"range_pos":0.005,"width_pct":219.6,"range_high":1598}
  - {"obs":4490,"name":"Rune dart(p)","item_id":817,"cur_price":180,"range_low":166,"range_pos":0.001,"width_pct":14711.7,"range_high":24588}
  - {"obs":4944,"name":"Willow longbow","item_id":847,"cur_price":101,"range_low":101,"range_pos":0,"width_pct":17.8,"range_high":119}
  - {"obs":4912,"name":"Sapphire amulet","item_id":1694,"cur_price":527,"range_low":344,"range_pos":0.005,"width_pct":11171.1,"range_high":38773}
  - {"obs":5274,"name":"Cake","item_id":1891,"cur_price":191,"range_low":151,"range_pos":0.019,"width_pct":1413.2,"range_high":2285}

### Track record (paper-traded by the harness with a self-impact haircut — weight your search by it)
- B: n=29 (4 open, 0 armed), 10 vetoed at ship time — check kill_price and capital against a live quote before shipping, 0% of closed confirmed, realized/projected -7.32 — projections have not held; require stronger evidence before pitching.
- F: n=514 (2 open, 0 armed), 445 vetoed at ship time — check kill_price and capital against a live quote before shipping, 0% of closed confirmed, realized/projected -0.27 — projections have not held; require stronger evidence before pitching.

### Recently killed/expired (do not re-pitch without materially new evidence)
- Magic longbow patient 35-65gp flip [F] killed: kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: exit_reachable, floor_ok)
- Green dragon leather patient 50-90gp flip [F] killed: kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: floor_ok, margin_alive, entry_reachable)
- Divine ranging potion(4) — patient 319gp structural spread on PvM ranging demand [F] killed: kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: floor_ok, margin_alive, entry_reachable, exit_reachable)
- Ruby dragon bolts (e) — high-vol ranged-bolt flip [F] killed: kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: margin_alive, floor_ok)
- Burnt page: 147gp post-tax spread, persistent through 24h, vol 332k/day [F] killed: kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: exit_reachable, floor_ok)
- Sanfew serum(4) — persistent ~400gp structural spread, member PvM potion [F] killed: kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: floor_ok)
- Avantoe — herb ingredient patient flip [F] killed: kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: vol_ok, floor_ok)
- Diamond dragon bolts (e) — PvM range-ammo flip [F] killed: kill signal sustained over 3 consecutive evaluations (failing: margin_alive, floor_ok)

### Operator notes
Volume flips: daily volume > 100k units, both sides printing within 30-60 min, weight by absolute margin x buy limit — evaluate how these items move through the day/week before shipping. Single-item flips: cost > 10M, bought and sold within 30 min, daily volume > 200 — quick but risky; require solid day-over-day and week-over-week trends before trusting the margin.